Market · 3 of 15 outcomes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 09:26 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x36da…907b | Yes | 2,451 | 64.6¢ | $1.57K | Losing−$1.36 per $100 · 394 bets |
| DavidofAnalytics0x039e…c5e0 | No | 1,174 | 36.1¢ | $423 | — |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | No | 1,000 | 35.0¢ | $360 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | Yes | 222 | 61.2¢ | $142 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| noname-0x0e4f…b706 | No | 300 | 38.0¢ | $108 | — |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | Yes | 100 | 63.0¢ | $64 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| 0x364f…e9c9 | No | 75 | 41.6¢ | $27 | — |
| p0l780x66c6…24af | No | 75 | 40.0¢ | $27 | New6 settled bets |
| 0xf9ea…7b04 | No | 55 | 37.1¢ | $20 | — |
| 0xfda6…b2dc | No | 54 | 37.2¢ | $19 | — |
| ferraracesare0x5aa0…c2d1 | Yes | 20 | 66.0¢ | $13 | New32 settled bets |
| Zasmes0x66be…1148 | Yes | 20 | 64.0¢ | $13 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 258 bets |
| zenmind0x1b0f…90bc | Yes | 17 | 64.9¢ | $11 | — |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | No | 29 | 36.0¢ | $11 | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 3,292 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 16 | 66.0¢ | $10 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| Heinrich18710x46f4…5352 | No | 28 | 36.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$4.94 per $100 · 422 bets |
| 0x26ff…056f | No | 27 | 36.0¢ | $10 | — |
| asdf112d0x839f…ecba | Yes | 10 | 65.0¢ | $6 | Break-even+$0.14 per $100 · 3,502 bets |
| 0xaf05…33e2 | Yes | 10 | 62.5¢ | $6 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | No | 18 | 37.3¢ | $6 | Losing−$2.67 per $100 · 123,278+ bets · updating |
| Susycaria0x504f…6fac | No | 14 | 36.0¢ | $5 | New50 settled bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | No | 14 | 35.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| 0x4e84…ef69 | No | 12 | 24.0¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 809 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 5 | 65.0¢ | $3 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,620 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 3 | 59.0¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,685 bets |
| 0xd6a7…c3d0 | No | 3 | 36.2¢ | $1 | — |
| Valouass0x6e36…5374 | Yes | 2 | 64.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.67 per $100 · 1,644 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 37.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| hithitfar0xe53c…e569 | Yes | 0 | 65.7¢ | $0 | Proven+$7.52 per $100 · 3,961 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.