Market · 9 of 15 outcomes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 03:00 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | No | 1,000 | 60.3¢ | $605 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| unsecured73080xe0d9…8483 | No | 968 | 59.3¢ | $586 | — |
| smellyEllie0x38f5…6824 | Yes | 1,469 | 39.7¢ | $580 | Proven+$13.29 per $100 · 3,504 bets |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | Yes | 678 | 40.1¢ | $268 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| doctorzhao0x5292…0a64 | No | 331 | 60.3¢ | $201 | — |
| TimeTraveler0x51fd…4272 | Yes | 500 | 39.0¢ | $197 | Positive+$6.45 per $100 · 7,363 bets |
| Marty-Byrde0xe0a2…a349 | No | 191 | 63.0¢ | $116 | — |
| p0l780x66c6…24af | No | 174 | 57.6¢ | $105 | — |
| Qwertie0x3759…3911 | No | 150 | 59.3¢ | $91 | — |
| gesst0xadaf…f9f2 | Yes | 209 | 44.0¢ | $82 | Proven+$17.17 per $100 · 566 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 132 | 61.0¢ | $80 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
| Yles0xdd4d…a125 | No | 100 | 64.0¢ | $61 | — |
| BigBoiBettin0x48ee…008c | Yes | 150 | 42.7¢ | $59 | Positive+$19.61 per $100 · 263 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 121 | 41.5¢ | $48 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 122,985 bets |
| predictdogepepewif0xf524…8178 | No | 40 | 60.5¢ | $24 | Losing−$5.59 per $100 · 11,425 bets |
| 0x4a84…8d46 | No | 36 | 57.0¢ | $22 | — |
| 0xf9ea…7b04 | No | 31 | 57.1¢ | $19 | — |
| BorEalIs0xcdff…6084 | No | 24 | 63.0¢ | $14 | — |
| Tevye0x02ce…4c88 | Yes | 23 | 44.0¢ | $9 | — |
| aelrinn0x5710…5a7a | No | 15 | 62.0¢ | $9 | — |
| 0x7c45…d3d3 | Yes | 20 | 49.0¢ | $8 | — |
| 8811120xd426…334a | Yes | 20 | 38.0¢ | $8 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 18 | 40.8¢ | $7 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Intravertas0xba94…4e82 | No | 11 | 53.0¢ | $7 | — |
| VolodymyrMudryk0x18fa…9cf4 | No | 9 | 54.3¢ | $6 | — |
| LornaPredicts0x7495…7fcf | No | 6 | 61.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$1.91 per $100 · 29,930+ bets · updating |
| Zasmes0x66be…1148 | Yes | 8 | 39.0¢ | $3 | — |
| Dimahkt0xe7e2…fa8f | Yes | 6 | 49.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Agitator0xc4c6…63c1 | No | 3 | 64.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Abladollosac0x3e98…5389 | No | 3 | 56.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x5449…992b | Yes | 3 | 40.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,692 bets |
| 0x5f4e…db92 | No | 2 | 60.0¢ | $1 | — |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 0 | 60.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.