Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 00:56 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 36,789 | 89.5¢ | $33.8K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 776 bets |
| tsybka0xd5cc…dea4 | No | 16,807 | 84.9¢ | $15.5K | Positive |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Mwhale0x9419…a40f | No | 8,062 | 89.9¢ | $7.42K | Break-even−$0.14 per $100 · 523 bets |
| DiaMat0x5ff7…f7f0 | No | 7,500 | 83.3¢ | $6.9K | New96 settled bets |
| NoIdea6660x7e14…7d13 | No | 6,059 | 88.6¢ | $5.57K | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 234 bets |
| yomayoto0xf2fc…7a15 | No | 3,943 | 89.3¢ | $3.63K | New76 settled bets |