Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 11:34 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 8 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 36,789 | 89.5¢ | $33.8K | Positive+$1.20 per $100 · 785 bets |
| tsybka0xd5cc…dea4 | No | 16,807 | 84.9¢ | $15.5K | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 943 bets |
| Mwhale0x9419…a40f | No | 8,062 | 89.9¢ | $7.42K | Break-even−$0.14 per $100 · 523 bets |
| DiaMat0x5ff7…f7f0 | No | 7,500 | 83.3¢ | $6.9K | New96 settled bets |
| NoIdea6660x7e14…7d13 | No | 6,059 | 88.6¢ | $5.57K | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 234 bets |
| yomayoto0xf2fc…7a15 | No | 3,943 | 89.3¢ | $3.63K | New76 settled bets |
| tetrose0x7447…a16d | Yes | 40,000 | 17.0¢ | $3.2K | Positive+$3.08 per $100 · 772 bets |
| yomayo0x3e35…4956 | No | 2,505 | 88.4¢ | $2.3K | Losing−$2.39 per $100 · 106 bets |
| bigshort0x21d5…9925 | No | 2,000 | 87.7¢ | $1.84K | Proven+$2.57 per $100 · 533 bets |
| GTOrski10xb3af…84fc | No | 1,899 | 85.8¢ | $1.75K | New31 settled bets |
| Rr550xb8ad…ff58 | No | 1,660 | 87.6¢ | $1.53K | — |
| pretzel0xda73…4d41 | Yes | 16,856 | 11.3¢ | $1.35K | Break-even+$0.69 per $100 · 167 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 1,377 | 88.0¢ | $1.27K | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| 572849100x856a…4ea2 | No | 1,294 | 88.6¢ | $1.19K | New18 settled bets |
| trader-05ddbe2e0x05dd…305c | No | 1,240 | 86.4¢ | $1.14K | Break-even−$0.55 per $100 · 19,461 bets |
| cumprod0x3ffe…e125 | No | 1,000 | 88.7¢ | $920 | — |
| feffefe0x8e34…4480 | No | 1,000 | 81.0¢ | $920 | Losing−$2.25 per $100 · 7,053 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 10,837 | 11.3¢ | $867 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,060 bets |
| 0x919d…60e1 | No | 900 | 88.1¢ | $828 | Break-even+$0.98 per $100 · 1,345 bets |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | No | 900 | 88.3¢ | $828 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| sabsabinxz0xd3ec…6603 | No | 750 | 88.4¢ | $690 | Proven+$23.86 per $100 · 101 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | 6,149 | 10.3¢ | $492 | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,267 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 500 | 88.0¢ | $460 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| 0xe42b…8444 | Yes | 5,540 | 18.1¢ | $443 | New6 settled bets |
| Scoofy-Bubik0x709a…7e39 | No | 480 | 90.0¢ | $442 | New83 settled bets |
| kaspersz0x351a…3bc7 | No | 462 | 82.6¢ | $425 | Break-even+$0.06 per $100 · 1,097 bets |
| PerfectTaste0x993b…deda | No | 460 | 85.0¢ | $423 | — |
| George3d60x4522…20c5 | No | 422 | 90.0¢ | $388 | — |
| Dondigidin0x07b9…0fbb | No | 400 | 87.7¢ | $368 | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 991 bets |
| Jest550xd34b…0004 | Yes | 4,000 | 14.0¢ | $320 | Proven+$5.67 per $100 · 2,686 bets |
| Jianyuen0x1a44…5e33 | No | 300 | 89.0¢ | $276 | Proven+$3.27 per $100 · 1,307 bets |
| Pantheon10x606e…6b3a | No | 300 | 81.0¢ | $276 | Proven+$2.76 per $100 · 477 bets |
| Porx0xa0bc…d428 | No | 300 | 91.0¢ | $276 | Proven+$7.70 per $100 · 3,050 bets |
| NeonVector0xe090…d0d4 | No | 291 | 84.4¢ | $268 | — |
| ScientiaRex0x8f0b…8be2 | No | 260 | 90.5¢ | $239 | — |
| Barcide0xd04d…3dda | No | 244 | 82.0¢ | $224 | Proven+$4.74 per $100 · 777 bets |
| 0x5702…f680 | No | 225 | 92.6¢ | $207 | — |
| niklaskk0xcd31…8f2a | Yes | 2,500 | 12.0¢ | $200 | — |
| ursweetie0x9936…b541 | Yes | 2,500 | 9.9¢ | $200 | — |
| il10x198a…3ca3 | No | 200 | 87.0¢ | $184 | Break-even−$0.71 per $100 · 872 bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 1,782 | 17.0¢ | $143 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| nooonce0x47cf…75d4 | No | 120 | 81.0¢ | $110 | — |
| wxufao680xd776…674c | No | 110 | 91.0¢ | $101 | — |
| theitaliangoats0x217a…86db | No | 110 | 91.2¢ | $101 | New13 settled bets |
| Putniy1110x10b7…9e3c | No | 100 | 79.0¢ | $92 | — |
| jiudubishu0x4e52…44e7 | No | 100 | 80.0¢ | $92 | Losing−$4.23 per $100 · 489 bets |
| CoreyTrevor0x5960…d692 | No | 100 | 90.0¢ | $92 | — |
| tnl0xb619…5068 | No | 100 | 89.0¢ | $92 | Break-even+$0.97 per $100 · 1,243 bets |
| aviato0x2a01…6397 | No | 90 | 87.0¢ | $83 | Positive+$1.04 per $100 · 3,741 bets |
| InsolentBret0x0a87…3e26 | No | 90 | 83.0¢ | $83 | Positive+$1.67 per $100 · 373 bets |
| fermiparadoxy0xdd8e…c072 | No | 89 | 90.0¢ | $82 | New1 settled bet |
| amused850x8fe7…4f20 | Yes | 1,000 | 12.1¢ | $80 | Losing−$2.18 per $100 · 5,572 bets |
| meagainsttheworld0x9592…a7b8 | Yes | 1,000 | 11.0¢ | $80 | Proven+$8.59 per $100 · 1,238 bets |
| 0xb5b1…7cf8 | Yes | 1,000 | 11.0¢ | $80 | — |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 1,000 | 10.0¢ | $80 | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| ox9Ff03EC541f69848004ef36AFf186a4fbb4d8DAB0x9ff0…8dab | No | 73 | 85.8¢ | $67 | — |
| gangOgang0x3ab8…c3b5 | No | 70 | 80.0¢ | $64 | — |
| WatchGod0x9090…3afe | Yes | 753 | 12.0¢ | $60 | — |
| FishermansFiend0x3a59…6c6f | No | 54 | 87.4¢ | $50 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 177 bets |
| AiBird0xa58d…b9b8 | Yes | 610 | 16.1¢ | $49 | Positive+$3.45 per $100 · 14,377 bets |
| pjotrekkk0xf102…1348 | Yes | 600 | 18.0¢ | $48 | Proven+$3.29 per $100 · 20,519 bets |
| jiffyjoker668880x162e…7cf3 | No | 50 | 90.0¢ | $46 | Losing−$2.00 per $100 · 548 bets |
| bakayo33 - 99340x343d…cd2e | No | 50 | 82.0¢ | $46 | Positive+$2.02 per $100 · 982 bets |
| 0x6b19…a2f2 | No | 50 | 84.0¢ | $46 | — |
| rexcom0xde09…dbde | Yes | 550 | 11.4¢ | $44 | — |
| EconProf0x2811…6818 | No | 47 | 85.0¢ | $43 | Positive+$1.77 per $100 · 519 bets |
| iuH1398SI0x44b7…2e99 | Yes | 533 | 11.0¢ | $43 | Losing−$4.94 per $100 · 743 bets |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | Yes | 526 | 11.0¢ | $42 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 575 bets |
| doramifa0x21a8…1aec | No | 40 | 90.0¢ | $37 | Break-even+$0.26 per $100 · 455 bets |
| Sten-Viking0xbbe8…50e3 | Yes | 417 | 12.0¢ | $33 | — |
| hp2102100x2ef8…b0f4 | Yes | 404 | 17.0¢ | $32 | Losing−$1.53 per $100 · 351 bets |
| 0x3c8f…b46c | Yes | 368 | 11.1¢ | $29 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 360 | 11.2¢ | $29 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| 0xd53e…0b73 | Yes | 337 | 9.0¢ | $27 | — |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 311 | 16.8¢ | $25 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| kryivkannn0xbd9f…2faa | Yes | 300 | 11.7¢ | $24 | — |
| 0x6b0e…e3ea | Yes | 296 | 8.0¢ | $24 | Positive+$1.38 per $100 · 4,796 bets |
| NellyDora0xca97…5409 | Yes | 247 | 11.0¢ | $20 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 1,328 bets |
| theta-thunberg0xb760…ccd7 | Yes | 239 | 11.0¢ | $19 | Proven+$6.21 per $100 · 1,086 bets |
| 0x2fd5…afcf | Yes | 156 | 16.0¢ | $13 | New4 settled bets |
| keepingitral0xf26c…d5c5 | Yes | 150 | 20.0¢ | $12 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 135 | 12.2¢ | $11 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 129 | 11.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 123,344 bets |
| 0xb6ce…895d | Yes | 120 | 11.0¢ | $10 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| sergiok140x4cc7…87bf | Yes | 83 | 12.0¢ | $7 | — |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | Yes | 80 | 17.0¢ | $6 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| ninasimon0x655e…e0cc | Yes | 80 | 11.8¢ | $6 | Losing−$5.10 per $100 · 236 bets |
| itsKey0x95c2…485b | Yes | 65 | 11.6¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x55fa…025b | Yes | 63 | 19.0¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x0f18…5b28 | Yes | 57 | 9.3¢ | $5 | Break-even−$0.95 per $100 · 3,585 bets |
| 0x5449…992b | Yes | 56 | 10.9¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,720 bets |
| vesselmaster0xfe3b…ae48 | Yes | 50 | 10.4¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x7b64…8440 | Yes | 45 | 11.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$3.09 per $100 · 962 bets |
| isnE4ZgjkP3nxh0xdb9c…483d | Yes | 40 | 11.0¢ | $3 | — |
| 77kbCcPrd2uG8w0x8dde…5045 | Yes | 34 | 11.4¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 174 bets |
| 0x3e8a…0f61 | Yes | 33 | 29.7¢ | $3 | Losing−$4.75 per $100 · 6,667 bets |
| 0xccf5…f72f | Yes | 25 | 12.0¢ | $2 | — |
| gonnakilmyslf0x5a7f…6413 | Yes | 25 | 11.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$2.96 per $100 · 4,379 bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | Yes | 23 | 17.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 22,021 bets |
| pol-ysniper0x41b1…4342 | Yes | 22 | 11.0¢ | $2 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.