Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?
Chance of Yes
▼ 2 pts this week
Money on this event
2 outcomes
Room to trade
1.0¢ between buy and sell
Ends
Jan 1
in 80 days
Full rules
As written on Polymarket for “Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?”.
§1This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia takes a qualifying military action against an EU member state between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
§2Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
§3A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Russia, that directly impacts an EU member state.
§4An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones.
§5A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
§6The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Russia.
§7Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, proxy forces, or the armed forces of any other state, including Belarus, will not qualify.
§8An "EU member state" refers to any of the 27 member states of the European Union as of market creation: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden.
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 17:30 UTC. Not financial advice.
§9The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
§10Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
§11Surface-to-air missile strikes;
§12Small-arms fire;
§13Ground incursions;
§14Cyber operations;
§15Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
§16Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
§17Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
§18Sabotage, arson, or other covert acts not carried out with the munitions described above;
§19Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
§20Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action.
§21Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on an EU member state do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
§22Munitions that enter the territory of an EU member state in the course of a Russian attack on a non-EU country, including Ukraine, will not qualify unless a consensus of information available from the resolution sources indicates that the munition was directed at a target within the EU member state.
§23A strike on an EU member state that is claimed by the Russian government or military will qualify.
§24The territory of an EU member state refers to its terrestrial territory, including its internal waters.
§25Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed.
§26Territories of member states to which the EU treaties do not apply, including Greenland, the Faroe Islands, and the overseas countries and territories associated with the EU, will not qualify.
§27Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the EU member state as of market creation will qualify.
§28The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources.
§29Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action.
§30If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass.
§31At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time.
§32No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
§33The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Russia and the relevant EU member state, official information from NATO and the European Union, and a consensus of credible reporting.
The market resolves "Yes" if Russia takes a qualifying military action against an EU member state from market creation to the stated date, 11:59 PM ET.§1
Who carries it out
The action must be carried out by Russia's armed forces; contractors, mercenaries, proxy forces, or other states' forces, including Belarus, do not qualify.§7
Intercepted munitions
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact, and debris or wreckage from them, do not qualify regardless of damage.§21
Attack on non-EU state
Munitions entering an EU state during a Russian attack on a non-EU country, including Ukraine, qualify only if sources show the munition was directed at a…§22
Conflict in sources
If sources conflict, the market stays open until consensus or 3 full calendar days from the first credibly reported evidence; then it is adjudicated on the…§29
Counted
A qualifying action is a Russian-initiated air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike that directly impacts an EU member state.§3
Source
Official information from the governments and militaries of Russia and the relevant EU member state, NATO and the EU, and a consensus of credible reporting.§33
Closes
Jan 1, 2027 · 04:59 UTC
Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.