Market · 1 of 2 outcomes
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 23:39 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | No | 2,441 | 77.3¢ | $1.89K | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,059 bets |
| George3d60x4522…20c5 | No | 439 | 84.8¢ | $340 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| gods-eye0x1086…27d2 |
| Yes |
| 1,500 |
| 23.0¢ |
| $337 |
| New67 settled bets |
| radek440x153b…65d8 | No | 360 | 75.7¢ | $279 | — |
| niklaskk0xcd31…8f2a | Yes | 1,072 | 37.4¢ | $241 | — |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | No | 164 | 64.0¢ | $127 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
NATO–Russia Military Clash · 2 events · $1.42M in play