Market · 1 of 2 outcomes
Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2027?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 04:14 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
2 proven traders are on Yes, 3 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | No | 2,441 | 77.3¢ | $1.84K | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,060 bets |
| gods-eye0x1086…27d2 | Yes | 1,500 | 23.0¢ | $367 | New67 settled bets |
| George3d60x4522…20c5 | No | 439 | 84.8¢ | $332 | — |
| radek440x153b…65d8 | No | 360 | 75.7¢ | $272 | — |
| niklaskk0xcd31…8f2a | Yes | 1,072 | 37.4¢ | $263 | — |
| Eia0x166a…d7ed | No | 164 | 64.0¢ | $124 | Proven+$5.89 per $100 · 1,215 bets |
| Mwhale0x9419…a40f | No | 163 | 79.7¢ | $123 | Break-even−$0.14 per $100 · 523 bets |
| 0xcad9…0beb | Yes | 423 | 35.5¢ | $104 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 376 | 26.7¢ | $92 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 123,024+ bets · updating |
| MEPP0x6d9f…9790 | No | 110 | 64.7¢ | $83 | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 1,289 bets |
| theitaliangoats0x217a…86db | No | 65 | 77.9¢ | $49 | — |
| ninasimon0x655e…e0cc | No | 60 | 79.0¢ | $46 | — |
| makanmakan0x46f0…b93a | Yes | 150 | 18.8¢ | $37 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 98 | 23.0¢ | $24 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | Yes | 66 | 11.0¢ | $16 | Proven+$3.95 per $100 · 66,042 bets |
| lolzzzlol0x7b25…e4be | No | 20 | 78.0¢ | $15 | — |
| Rr550xb8ad…ff58 | No | 17 | 71.0¢ | $13 | — |
| pppnn0x4c9a…0cd4 | Yes | 40 | 25.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$8.20 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 11 | 79.7¢ | $8 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,920 bets |
| youtube-trader0x0c28…9844 | Yes | 20 | 38.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$6.42 per $100 · 14,045 bets |
| Tallguy25270x0cf6…3ed9 | Yes | 20 | 37.0¢ | $5 | Losing−$4.17 per $100 · 8,350 bets |
| Brendanayxu0xdab0…3d70 | Yes | 20 | 20.0¢ | $5 | New6 settled bets |
| 0x8f9f…36e1 | Yes | 19 | 27.8¢ | $5 | — |
| MakRos0xc554…268c | Yes | 17 | 29.8¢ | $4 | — |
| KiraHK10xa87f…864d | No | 5 | 67.0¢ | $4 | — |
| SHAKURINTENKKA0x68db…ab4c | Yes | 13 | 22.7¢ | $3 | — |
| Alfredo=Kuneman0x2b08…8903 | Yes | 10 | 22.8¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x5449…992b | No | 2 | 68.9¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,692 bets |
| ddadsf0x9d17…c777 | Yes | 6 | 22.0¢ | $2 | — |
| MaxGold19170x3606…caca | Yes | 5 | 22.7¢ | $1 | — |
| Te0n20xd950…ad1b | Yes | 3 | 24.0¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 3,908 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 0 | 37.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 0 | 25.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,489 bets |
| 0xe8c4…ea5c | Yes | 0 | 24.0¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
NATO–Russia Military Clash · 2 events · $1.4M in play