Market · 1 of 2 outcomes
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 18:03 UTC. Not financial advice.
NATO–Russia Military Clash · 2 events · $1.42M in play
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
15 proven traders are on Yes, 12 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| thoodr0x3eae…e2ed | No | 73,608 | 81.7¢ | $57.8K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 770 bets |
| onekey020xfaf9…f4c4 | No | 65,832 | 78.6¢ | $51.7K | Break-even |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| LlamaLoco00000x93fb…3e4a | Yes | 212,729 | 22.2¢ | $45.7K | Proven+$10.70 per $100 · 391 bets |
| sbimbg0xf519…906b | No | 42,535 | 71.1¢ | $33.4K | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 7,044 bets |
| BigBusinessPro0x71b5…1231 | No | 38,500 | 74.0¢ | $30.2K | New1 settled bet |
| ppxtu0xfb57…0a46 | No | 33,226 | 78.4¢ | $26.1K | New85 settled bets |
| samemma0x52ab…c26c | No | 32,219 | 77.0¢ | $25.3K | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 179 bets |
| 0x16bb…8492 | No | 29,738 | 69.9¢ | $23.3K | Losing−$2.05 per $100 · 1,615 bets |
| aenews20x44c1…ebc1 | Yes | 85,315 | 22.2¢ | $18.3K | Positive+$1.65 per $100 · 4,114 bets |
| Binturung0x9589…39b0 | No | 20,000 | 72.5¢ | $15.7K | New61 settled bets |
| NeH0x11fc…dc48 | No | 19,356 | 80.0¢ | $15.2K | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 159 bets |
| tetrose0x7447…a16d | Yes | 68,392 | 29.1¢ | $14.7K | Positive+$3.08 per $100 · 771 bets |
| dwarf1230x8dc9…434f | No | 15,701 | 75.7¢ | $12.3K | New9 settled bets |
| lug0xe0db…f44e | No | 15,000 | 80.4¢ | $11.8K | Break-even+$0.56 per $100 · 4,496 bets |
| Specksalam0x80f1…3ccd | No | 14,220 | 78.0¢ | $11.2K | New88 settled bets |
| fractal.cucumber0x0bd6…63e0 | No | 12,198 | 76.0¢ | $9.58K | New4 settled bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | No | 11,705 | 66.9¢ | $9.19K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| JSG30x0191…541d | No | 10,037 | 68.6¢ | $7.88K | New18 settled bets |
| 0xff1e…5e2d | No | 8,000 | 69.5¢ | $6.28K | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 637 bets |
| rerevervadae4r3453214tpermdr43fvd0x09cc…421a | No | 6,933 | 67.8¢ | $5.44K | Proven+$34.15 per $100 · 687 bets |
| inrock300xd576…d5e3 | Yes | 23,643 | 27.8¢ | $5.08K | New97 settled bets |
| Gohst0x2d4b…ca7a | No | 5,990 | 31.6¢ | $4.7K | Proven+$80.31 per $100 · 2,060 bets |
| e888880x0d15…c454 | No | 5,641 | 74.7¢ | $4.43K | Losing−$2.14 per $100 · 167 bets |
| tsihkodiives0x6db9…4ab5 | Yes | 19,227 | 27.0¢ | $4.13K | Break-even−$0.43 per $100 · 1,083 bets |
| 0xffd3…7c75 | No | 4,769 | 72.4¢ | $3.74K | Proven+$18.43 per $100 · 112 bets |
| 0x8df2…788d | No | 4,668 | 75.0¢ | $3.66K | New24 settled bets |
| ELICHOU0x312b…cafe | No | 4,490 | 66.0¢ | $3.52K | Positive+$13.75 per $100 · 117 bets |
| BikesAreTheBikes0x215a…254c | No | 4,379 | 58.4¢ | $3.44K | Positive+$6.72 per $100 · 6,725 bets |
| 0x41e8…b994 | No | 4,256 | 77.3¢ | $3.34K | Proven+$8.84 per $100 · 149 bets |
| s.p.q.r0x5e32…3408 | Yes | 15,100 | 20.7¢ | $3.25K | New87 settled bets |
| timebrotime0x606d…1aaf | No | 4,124 | 74.8¢ | $3.24K | Proven+$3.83 per $100 · 2,545 bets |
| Outsid3rTrading0xf1ef…8cd6 | Yes | 15,000 | 27.3¢ | $3.22K | Break-even+$0.74 per $100 · 2,128 bets |
| Outsmarter0x1b60…a55b | No | 4,000 | 76.7¢ | $3.14K | Proven+$28.81 per $100 · 152 bets |
| a7sd70xf197…df38 | No | 3,956 | 72.0¢ | $3.11K | New2 settled bets |
| ErnstKuzorra0xad8e…776e | No | 3,926 | 70.1¢ | $3.08K | Losing−$1.19 per $100 · 621 bets |
| GOLADS960x894d…04e2 | Yes | 12,988 | 21.8¢ | $2.79K | New56 settled bets |
| Kajaklala0xdfb8…23ea | No | 3,524 | 74.4¢ | $2.77K | New7 settled bets |
| Spaceball10x4eb3…2bd4 | No | 3,440 | 78.7¢ | $2.7K | New25 settled bets |
| 0x502b…3b15 | No | 3,390 | 79.9¢ | $2.66K | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 42,765+ bets · updating |
| RewardsMafia0x3eed…cb2a | Yes | 12,097 | 23.0¢ | $2.6K | Losing−$7.90 per $100 · 237 bets |
| betwick0xc851…cd2a | Yes | 11,681 | 27.2¢ | $2.51K | Proven+$5.26 per $100 · 769 bets |
| Trumpchi0xf7b3…eeb2 | No | 3,195 | 74.4¢ | $2.51K | Break-even+$0.93 per $100 · 472 bets |
| letsgobooyah0x6c0f…9503 | No | 3,100 | 71.1¢ | $2.43K | New52 settled bets |
| TerreMoto0x0b21…deb6 | No | 3,045 | 77.5¢ | $2.39K | Positive+$1.33 per $100 · 258 bets |
| i.love.Frieren0x314c…69dd | No | 3,033 | 72.5¢ | $2.38K | New87 settled bets |
| StoneMarble0xbef5…1c5a | No | 3,000 | 72.0¢ | $2.35K | New45 settled bets |
| 0x553a…177f | No | 3,000 | 82.0¢ | $2.35K | Proven+$2.80 per $100 · 310 bets |
| DegenerateJanet0x8964…0bec | No | 3,000 | 74.0¢ | $2.35K | Positive+$1.91 per $100 · 666 bets |
| berny-bot0x6531…3c74 | No | 2,860 | 69.0¢ | $2.25K | New73 settled bets |
| Olegminet0x943f…43a7 | No | 2,655 | 77.3¢ | $2.08K | — |
| UniversalCarrier0x56b1…0e9f | Yes | 9,588 | 22.6¢ | $2.06K | New56 settled bets |
| Barcide0xd04d…3dda | No | 2,600 | 76.9¢ | $2.04K | Proven+$4.74 per $100 · 777 bets |
| takeormake0xa38a…821d | No | 2,583 | 71.0¢ | $2.03K | Break-even+$0.05 per $100 · 8,323 bets |
| tja0xe1b3…1426 | No | 2,572 | 73.5¢ | $2.02K | Proven+$10.80 per $100 · 1,660 bets |
| Odysseus70x7e31…454d | No | 2,400 | 70.2¢ | $1.88K | Break-even+$0.10 per $100 · 766 bets |
| Ultimatetrader690x5e29…9c17 | No | 2,390 | 70.5¢ | $1.88K | Losing−$2.46 per $100 · 158 bets |
| RolandDrump0x7532…c6fc | No | 2,373 | 70.0¢ | $1.86K | Proven+$4.09 per $100 · 477 bets |
| mamai0xabbe…8f37 | No | 2,346 | 76.2¢ | $1.84K | Losing−$7.39 per $100 · 667 bets |
| Medoed690x4a98…3113 | No | 2,300 | 78.0¢ | $1.81K | Proven+$2.77 per $100 · 182 bets |
| AxiaSystem0x18cd…d8d2 | No | 2,281 | 78.9¢ | $1.79K | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 9,147 bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | Yes | 8,140 | 28.7¢ | $1.75K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 625 bets |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | Yes | 7,925 | 25.8¢ | $1.7K | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,711 bets |
| EternalDecay0x315a…ac61 | Yes | 5,581 | 26.9¢ | $1.2K | New1 settled bet |
| DerDon0xf797…0bf2 | Yes | 5,289 | 27.7¢ | $1.14K | Proven+$4.32 per $100 · 4,225 bets |
| Optimus-0xd5b9…e44e | Yes | 4,795 | 26.8¢ | $1.03K | Proven+$7.77 per $100 · 3,039 bets |
| NDeoxraGsmE7RC8A0xa200…f93b | Yes | 4,600 | 16.9¢ | $989 | New4 settled bets |
| 0x2c76…8487 | Yes | 4,426 | 33.8¢ | $952 | New16 settled bets |
| 0xa1d6…982d | Yes | 4,269 | 19.4¢ | $918 | New19 settled bets |
| lava-lava0x629b…995a | Yes | 4,246 | 31.0¢ | $913 | Proven+$7.83 per $100 · 1,847 bets |
| 0x0371…3683 | Yes | 4,206 | 21.9¢ | $904 | New24 settled bets |
| cambridgeisaac0xb51b…b4d9 | Yes | 4,018 | 52.3¢ | $864 | Proven+$2.35 per $100 · 2,451 bets |
| troim0x4a2b…af20 | Yes | 3,822 | 36.8¢ | $822 | Positive+$2.88 per $100 · 1,252 bets |
| goatboss0x56e7…cf24 | Yes | 3,700 | 28.1¢ | $796 | New35 settled bets |
| UncleFill0x1232…6158 | Yes | 3,511 | 29.4¢ | $755 | Losing−$24.97 per $100 · 444 bets |
| mirroredtrade-RocWins0xdb25…eb12 | Yes | 3,371 | 24.0¢ | $725 | Losing−$4.60 per $100 · 3,691 bets |
| WongKimArk0x7bb2…682c | Yes | 3,354 | 20.0¢ | $721 | Positive+$3.29 per $100 · 449 bets |
| Phenium0xe9f2…ddd0 | Yes | 3,200 | 25.6¢ | $688 | Losing−$9.67 per $100 · 623 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 3,164 | 39.9¢ | $680 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,059 bets |
| trx10xc6a2…c9b7 | Yes | 3,100 | 21.0¢ | $666 | Proven+$5.61 per $100 · 172 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | 3,000 | 23.1¢ | $645 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 10,235 bets |
| neetbets0x4526…7a45 | Yes | 2,999 | 22.0¢ | $645 | Proven+$4.13 per $100 · 1,269 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | Yes | 2,948 | 23.5¢ | $634 | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,672 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | Yes | 2,733 | 31.4¢ | $588 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 2,659 | 25.7¢ | $572 | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 5,397 bets |
| 0x817a…f4db | Yes | 2,618 | 33.0¢ | $563 | New21 settled bets |
| GammaSqueeze12340xb25d…d127 | Yes | 2,570 | 26.0¢ | $553 | New79 settled bets |
| peterfromfamilyguy0x9352…2227 | Yes | 2,500 | 21.0¢ | $538 | Proven+$4.36 per $100 · 699 bets |
| 0x79a1…34b5 | Yes | 2,498 | 23.1¢ | $537 | New9 settled bets |
| alexy9730x4ad9…126d | Yes | 2,462 | 24.4¢ | $529 | New38 settled bets |
| Hans3230x0f37…1410 | Yes | 2,218 | 28.0¢ | $477 | Break-even+$0.60 per $100 · 4,874 bets |
| 0xfd60…93cb | Yes | 2,083 | 27.9¢ | $448 | New20 settled bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 2,021 | 26.8¢ | $435 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| 0x91c3…409f | Yes | 2,013 | 26.0¢ | $433 | New0 settled bets |
| purplegatto0x032e…2a9e | Yes | 2,000 | 29.7¢ | $430 | Losing−$7.33 per $100 · 15,703 bets |
| Sylvester.the.Cat0x0f2b…665a | Yes | 2,000 | 24.0¢ | $430 | Proven+$7.28 per $100 · 118 bets |
| cookiejar0x614e…4f1b | Yes | 2,000 | 29.0¢ | $430 | Break-even−$0.11 per $100 · 315 bets |
| kingt0x772c…804a | Yes | 2,000 | 25.0¢ | $430 | New64 settled bets |
| EscapeVelocity0x832b…3ae1 | Yes | 2,000 | 22.0¢ | $430 | Proven+$4.44 per $100 · 1,574 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 2.1K shares each side · Show
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