Market · 14 of 15 outcomes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 20:22 UTC. Not financial advice.
3 more outcomes in this event.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x65483555411585564410x952a…bdc8 | No | 5,327 | 89.1¢ | $4.82K | — |
| TherephLev0x93fd…15d8 | No | 4,917 | 87.6¢ | $4.45K | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| No |
| 3,200 |
| 91.0¢ |
| $2.9K |
| New74 settled bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 3,011 | 92.3¢ | $2.72K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,971 bets |
| Lamantinka0xbb98…6d3c | No | 2,322 | 89.1¢ | $2.1K | — |
| sdhyky0x264c…baca | No | 2,053 | 86.2¢ | $1.86K | Positive+$1.40 per $100 · 1,477 bets |