Market · 14 of 15 outcomes
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 01:00 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
8 proven traders are on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x65483555411585564410x952a…bdc8 | No | 5,327 | 89.1¢ | $4.85K | — |
| TherephLev0x93fd…15d8 | No | 4,917 | 87.6¢ | $4.47K | — |
| kinkkukaarlo0x4c8a…3d45 | No | 3,200 | 91.0¢ | $2.91K | New74 settled bets |
| nonkenny900x5cd5…ac33 | No | 3,011 | 92.3¢ | $2.74K | Break-even+$0.34 per $100 · 8,975 bets |
| Lamantinka0xbb98…6d3c | No | 2,322 | 89.1¢ | $2.11K | — |
| sdhyky0x264c…baca | No | 2,053 | 86.2¢ | $1.87K | Positive+$1.40 per $100 · 1,477 bets |
| tr10000x8a8b…375c | No | 2,000 | 92.0¢ | $1.82K | Losing−$2.06 per $100 · 6,303 bets |
| browne0xbf96…9942 | No | 1,950 | 92.9¢ | $1.77K | Proven+$2.85 per $100 · 304 bets |
| shirase550x84a7…b6c5 | No | 1,148 | 87.1¢ | $1.04K | New6 settled bets |
| Dafri2202860x2908…91f5 | No | 797 | 87.0¢ | $725 | New22 settled bets |
| newnewuser0x1dd1…a156 | No | 772 | 89.1¢ | $702 | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 737 bets |
| -Yang-0x43a6…8b32 | No | 634 | 86.4¢ | $577 | Proven+$7.85 per $100 · 427 bets |
| gambler130x7319…0299 | Yes | 6,157 | 8.4¢ | $554 | Break-even−$0.04 per $100 · 373 bets |
| 0x6c10…df5c | No | 600 | 89.0¢ | $546 | Losing−$7.13 per $100 · 1,041 bets |
| AiBird0xa58d…b9b8 | Yes | 4,321 | 11.4¢ | $389 | Positive+$3.43 per $100 · 14,399 bets |
| tropicalyHey0xf665…d8b4 | No | 350 | 93.0¢ | $319 | — |
| Kwon1230x5da1…54a3 | No | 337 | 89.0¢ | $307 | New11 settled bets |
| Squir0x61fc…108e | No | 335 | 89.5¢ | $305 | New1 settled bet |
| FishermansFiend0x3a59…6c6f | No | 303 | 89.9¢ | $276 | Positive+$2.04 per $100 · 177 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 296 | 86.0¢ | $269 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,309 bets |
| smellyEllie0x38f5…6824 | Yes | 2,873 | 11.7¢ | $259 | Proven+$13.24 per $100 · 3,540 bets |
| Runner1090x6a67…df6f | No | 250 | 89.8¢ | $228 | Positive+$2.00 per $100 · 672 bets |
| Get100x904f…50c6 | Yes | 2,150 | 14.0¢ | $194 | — |
| unsecured73080xe0d9…8483 | No | 198 | 93.0¢ | $180 | — |
| 8811120xd426…334a | Yes | 2,000 | 11.0¢ | $180 | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| BigBoiBettin0x48ee…008c | Yes | 2,000 | 13.0¢ | $180 | Positive+$19.61 per $100 · 263 bets |
| Voland67770xc23e…6499 | No | 180 | 84.0¢ | $164 | New18 settled bets |
| Dagases0x9385…dcef | No | 177 | 90.9¢ | $161 | — |
| NothingEverHappens120x407d…efcd | No | 152 | 87.8¢ | $138 | Proven+$4.99 per $100 · 294 bets |
| Trumpchi0xf7b3…eeb2 | No | 150 | 88.7¢ | $137 | Break-even+$0.93 per $100 · 472 bets |
| slapikayte0xd95e…ffa8 | No | 143 | 87.3¢ | $130 | — |
| Gl2eEn0xdf94…972c | No | 112 | 89.0¢ | $102 | — |
| p0l780x66c6…24af | No | 112 | 89.0¢ | $102 | New6 settled bets |
| 0x3741…fedf | Yes | 1,130 | 12.0¢ | $102 | New18 settled bets |
| AAVVAA0xb2c4…43e8 | Yes | 1,128 | 8.4¢ | $102 | — |
| Palchyk0xbb2b…c5ca | No | 110 | 91.1¢ | $100 | — |
| moto2026120x5a64…e82b | No | 100 | 87.0¢ | $91 | Losing−$7.42 per $100 · 137 bets |
| kukubaja0xa0c3…5b9a | No | 100 | 91.0¢ | $91 | Positive+$1.05 per $100 · 1,092 bets |
| rip0x5950…8c48 | Yes | 1,000 | 10.0¢ | $90 | Proven+$2.14 per $100 · 647 bets |
| gimbobo0xd7a2…2b21 | Yes | 1,000 | 8.0¢ | $90 | — |
| BigRabbit0xeb22…808a | Yes | 1,000 | 10.0¢ | $90 | Positive+$4.46 per $100 · 2,227 bets |
| Gucky-450xe613…540e | Yes | 1,000 | 10.0¢ | $90 | Positive+$9.92 per $100 · 2,566 bets |
| bosshog0x47ab…95df | Yes | 1,000 | 14.0¢ | $90 | Positive+$1.02 per $100 · 1,839 bets |
| Porx0xa0bc…d428 | Yes | 796 | 7.0¢ | $72 | Proven+$7.58 per $100 · 3,059 bets |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | No | 78 | 88.7¢ | $71 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 7,275 bets |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 78 | 91.7¢ | $71 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| romfol0xad62…32ff | Yes | 670 | 10.6¢ | $60 | — |
| 0x4e84…ef69 | Yes | 653 | 12.2¢ | $59 | Break-even+$0.27 per $100 · 817 bets |
| WaterlooV0xced4…3dc4 | No | 61 | 91.0¢ | $55 | — |
| NeevS0x30b2…1a36 | No | 60 | 93.0¢ | $55 | Break-even+$0.73 per $100 · 755 bets |
| yarrro0x4454…f6bf | No | 60 | 86.0¢ | $55 | Losing−$5.71 per $100 · 635 bets |
| TimeTraveler0x51fd…4272 | Yes | 600 | 11.0¢ | $54 | Positive+$6.42 per $100 · 7,367 bets |
| Hazya0xe795…6068 | Yes | 596 | 16.6¢ | $54 | — |
| 0xd113…09c6 | No | 55 | 91.0¢ | $50 | — |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | No | 53 | 89.0¢ | $49 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| jamesdean550x680d…a511 | No | 49 | 85.0¢ | $44 | New7 settled bets |
| whumpa0xe000…cbb1 | Yes | 457 | 9.0¢ | $41 | — |
| UZZ2420x21f4…b8ad | No | 45 | 91.0¢ | $41 | — |
| zxdfbdfgngcxv0x57b0…76f4 | No | 41 | 87.5¢ | $37 | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 2,947 bets |
| bubububblebutt0xb220…5f71 | No | 40 | 84.0¢ | $36 | — |
| DrunkSanta0x6186…6816 | Yes | 381 | 10.8¢ | $34 | Losing−$7.91 per $100 · 131 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 36 | 91.2¢ | $33 | Break-even+$0.07 per $100 · 22,989 bets |
| altar070x7028…e0e9 | No | 30 | 86.0¢ | $27 | Losing−$5.28 per $100 · 1,123 bets |
| Deepsaury0xeb0e…a41a | No | 30 | 85.0¢ | $27 | — |
| Maksym840xd182…047d | No | 25 | 88.5¢ | $23 | — |
| soul0x51b8…3bb1 | No | 25 | 89.0¢ | $22 | New24 settled bets |
| Taytaaaaan0x5e62…c577 | Yes | 247 | 7.0¢ | $22 | New63 settled bets |
| carnival0x4355…135c | No | 23 | 86.0¢ | $21 | Proven+$3.61 per $100 · 163 bets |
| geonb0x7558…970a | No | 23 | 88.0¢ | $21 | New42 settled bets |
| ryansxlin950x4b41…652d | No | 22 | 89.0¢ | $20 | Losing−$6.64 per $100 · 101 bets |
| LeChatonFat0x9629…ee15 | No | 22 | 89.0¢ | $20 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 206 | 11.0¢ | $19 | Losing−$2.50 per $100 · 124,511+ bets · updating |
| 0xf2e7…843e | Yes | 200 | 11.0¢ | $18 | — |
| SuperTests0xf3fa…7be3 | Yes | 180 | 13.0¢ | $16 | Proven+$3.40 per $100 · 1,020 bets |
| sannek0x1a5e…84cd | Yes | 140 | 9.9¢ | $13 | Positive+$15.19 per $100 · 224 bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | Yes | 138 | 8.0¢ | $12 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| miltern0x1549…e0f3 | Yes | 122 | 11.5¢ | $11 | — |
| RolandZhang0x0cd6…2784 | Yes | 106 | 14.0¢ | $10 | Losing−$7.28 per $100 · 216 bets |
| garbagefriends0xc5bd…ceaa | Yes | 101 | 10.0¢ | $9 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 1,711 bets |
| 0x1838…68f0 | Yes | 100 | 15.0¢ | $9 | Proven+$2.10 per $100 · 123 bets |
| anchiiik0x3917…3fe9 | Yes | 100 | 9.0¢ | $9 | — |
| rocky420050xd6a8…58fd | Yes | 98 | 9.0¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.22 per $100 · 12,889 bets |
| Adarok170x6e89…5f8a | Yes | 94 | 16.0¢ | $8 | New96 settled bets |
| 0xab38…9180 | Yes | 80 | 13.0¢ | $7 | — |
| 0x4394…3055 | Yes | 67 | 15.0¢ | $6 | Break-even+$0.66 per $100 · 587 bets |
| 13216540xe7ed…502a | Yes | 64 | 11.0¢ | $6 | — |
| 0xe3ae…217a | Yes | 56 | 15.0¢ | $5 | — |
| Malganis0x4bf4…7021 | Yes | 50 | 10.0¢ | $5 | Break-even+$0.33 per $100 · 3,303 bets |
| 0xeaa3…5977 | Yes | 46 | 15.1¢ | $4 | — |
| zwpp6tl6edye0x3ca2…d5b9 | Yes | 42 | 12.1¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.41 per $100 · 151 bets |
| ResolvedMarkets0x4109…ad6b | Yes | 40 | 16.0¢ | $4 | Proven+$6.06 per $100 · 783 bets |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | Yes | 37 | 7.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| jabbbb0x3a99…b4c1 | Yes | 28 | 18.0¢ | $3 | New23 settled bets |
| CallMeDaddyBaby0xa536…0190 | Yes | 25 | 8.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xf9b5…1212 | Yes | 24 | 13.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Nerok0x9439…bc47 | Yes | 23 | 13.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 21 | 11.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| po-ly28-test-user60x53f8…5ce0 | Yes | 20 | 10.0¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.20 per $100 · 536 bets |
| 0x5449…992b | Yes | 18 | 11.8¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,720 bets |
| 0xcbff…f748 | Yes | 16 | 16.1¢ | $1 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.