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Topic · Geopolitics
63 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
4.2% of Polymarket
Events · markets
39 · 63
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
1 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Jan 1
in 82 days
Biggest first · chance of Yes
| Market | Event | Chance | This week | Ends | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 2.1¢ | down 0.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $6.08M |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 23:41 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? |
| 2.9¢ |
| up 0.3 points this week |
| Jan 1 |
| $4.23M |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | 4.8¢ | up 0.3 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.70M |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | 4.3¢ | up 0.4 points this week | Jan 1 | $0.21M |
| Puma Shen | Taipei Mayor Election Winner | 33.4¢ | up 4.1 points this week | Nov 29 | $0.21M |
| Chiang Wan-an | Taipei Mayor Election Winner | 66.5¢ | down 5 points this week | Nov 29 | $0.16M |
| US x China Military clash before 2027? | US x China Military clash before 2027? | 2.5¢ | up 0.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $33.7K |
| December 31 | Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...? | 73.5¢ | up 0.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $32.8K |
| December 31, 2026 | China coup attempt by...? | 3.8¢ | up 0.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $28.4K |
| Kuomintang (KMT) | 2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner | 82.5¢ | down 8 points this week | Nov 29 | $23.9K |
| Su Chiao-hui | New Taipei Mayor Election Winner | 46.0¢ | up 1.5 points this week | Nov 29 | $22.5K |
| Lee Shu-chuan | New Taipei Mayor Election Winner | 54.5¢ | down 3 points this week | Nov 29 | $18.9K |
| Ko Chih-en | Kaohsiung Mayor Election Winner | 28.5¢ | down 7.3 points this week | Nov 29 | $11.8K |
| Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? | Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? | 1.0¢ | down 0.1 points this week | Jan 1 | $11.3K |
| Ann Kao | Hsinchu City Mayor Election Winner | 87.5¢ | down 5.5 points this week | Nov 29 | $11.1K |
| Cai Qi | Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | 2.5¢ | up 1 point this week | Jan 1 | $9.6K |
| Dong Jun | Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | 5.5¢ | down 2.6 points this week | Jan 1 | $8.8K |
| Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? | Lai Ching-te out as President of Taiwan by December 31, 2026? | 6.8¢ | up 3.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $6.8K |
| US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? | US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026? | 6.3¢ | up 0.4 points this week | Jan 1 | $5.9K |
| Zhang Shengmin | Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | 3.1¢ | up 0.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $5.5K |
| Lai Jui-lung | Kaohsiung Mayor Election Winner | 72.5¢ | up 11 points this week | Nov 29 | $5.3K |
| Li Xi | Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | 4.1¢ | down 0.8 points this week | Jan 1 | $5.3K |
| Ding Xuexiang | Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | 4.7¢ | up 1.9 points this week | Jan 1 | $4.6K |
| Chung Tung-chin | Miaoli County Magistrate Election Winner | 96.0¢ | up 2.1 points this week | Nov 29 | $3.7K |
| December 31 | Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by...? | 94.3¢ | up 0.7 points this week | Jan 1 | $3.6K |
| Wu Hsiu-hua | Taitung County Magistrate Election Winner | 71.5¢ | down 11.5 points this week | Nov 29 | $2.8K |
| Chen Ying | Taitung County Magistrate Election Winner | 26.8¢ | up 9.8 points this week | Nov 29 | $2.8K |
| Wang Yi | Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | 3.2¢ | down 0.4 points this week | Jan 1 | $2.7K |
| TSMC | Which companies will the US take a stake in? | 13.0¢ | down 1.5 points this week | Jan 1 | $2.7K |
| Cheng Chao-fang | Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner | 59.5¢ | down 2 points this week | Nov 29 | $2.7K |
| Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | Next leader out of power before 2027? | 0.7¢ | up 0.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $2.4K |
| Chang Chia-chun | Yunlin County Magistrate Election Winner | 80.5¢ | down 1.5 points this week | Nov 29 | $2.3K |
| Wang Huning | Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | 3.6¢ | down 0.6 points this week | Jan 1 | $2.3K |
| Wang Chung-ming | Lienchiang County Magistrate Election Winner | 75.5¢ | down 2.5 points this week | Nov 29 | $2.3K |
| Zhao Leji | Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | 2.0¢ | down 1.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $2.3K |
| Li Qiang | Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026? | 1.5¢ | up 0.1 points this week | Jan 1 | $2.2K |
| Chang San-cheng | Taoyuan Mayor Election Winner | 92.5¢ | – | Nov 29 | $2.2K |
| Hsu Hsin-ying | Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner | 35.5¢ | up 5.5 points this week | Nov 29 | $2.1K |
| Ho Hsin-chun | Taichung Mayor Election Winner | 26.7¢ | up 13.9 points this week | Nov 29 | $1.8K |
| Johnny Chiang | Taichung Mayor Election Winner | 71.0¢ | down 14.5 points this week | Nov 29 | $1.8K |
| Tung Tzu-wei | Keelung Mayor Election Winner | 20.5¢ | down 1 point this week | Nov 29 | $1.5K |
| Chen Ting-fei | Tainan Mayor Election Winner | 88.0¢ | up 4 points this week | Nov 29 | $1.5K |
| Chen Su-yueh | Changhua County Magistrate Election Winner | 92.0¢ | down 0.5 points this week | Nov 29 | $1.4K |
| Hsieh Kuo-liang | Keelung Mayor Election Winner | 76.0¢ | down 3 points this week | Nov 29 | $1.4K |
| Kuo Hsi | Taipei Mayor Election Winner | 0.1¢ | – | Nov 29 | $1.4K |
| Chen Yu-jen | Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner | 95.0¢ | – | Nov 29 | $1.1K |
| Wu Shu-chin | Penghu County Magistrate Election Winner | 26.5¢ | up 8 points this week | Nov 29 | $1.0K |
| Chen Chen-chung | Penghu County Magistrate Election Winner | 64.0¢ | down 0.5 points this week | Nov 29 | $977 |
| Yang Chiung-ying | Taichung Mayor Election Winner | 0.4¢ | down 1 point this week | Nov 29 | $976 |
| Yu Shu-chen | Hualien County Magistrate Election Winner | 82.0¢ | – | Nov 29 | $952 |
| 66% to 67% | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin? | 27.5¢ | – | Oct 15 | $757 |
| Xi Jinping | Who will Trump speak to by October 31? | 13.0¢ | up 5.5 points this week | Nov 1 | $755 |
| Su Ching-chuan | Pingtung County Magistrate Election Winner | 12.0¢ | – | Nov 29 | $702 |
| Liu Chien-kuo | Yunlin County Magistrate Election Winner | 15.0¢ | – | Nov 29 | $661 |
| Hsu Shu-hua | Nantou County Magistrate Election Winner | 95.8¢ | – | Nov 29 | $651 |
| 67% to 68% | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin? | 41.5¢ | – | Oct 15 | $584 |
| Chou Chun-mi | Pingtung County Magistrate Election Winner | 83.0¢ | down 4.5 points this week | Nov 29 | $570 |
| Wu Pin-jui | Chiayi County Magistrate Election Winner | 8.5¢ | – | Nov 29 | $564 |
| Huang Kuo-chang | New Taipei Mayor Election Winner | 0.1¢ | – | Nov 29 | $555 |
| Li Wu Ying-chih | Taitung County Magistrate Election Winner | 0.1¢ | – | Nov 29 | $469 |
| Wei Chia-hsien | Hualien County Magistrate Election Winner | 12.5¢ | down 1 point this week | Nov 29 | $452 |
| Hsieh Lung-chieh | Tainan Mayor Election Winner | 7.0¢ | up 0.2 points this week | Nov 29 | $446 |
| Chuang Ching-cheng | Hsinchu City Mayor Election Winner | 9.6¢ | down 7 points this week | Nov 29 | $446 |
| Tsao Erh-yuan | Lienchiang County Magistrate Election Winner | 15.4¢ | up 3.5 points this week | Nov 29 | $435 |
| Tsai Yi-yu | Chiayi County Magistrate Election Winner | 90.5¢ | down 0.5 points this week | Nov 29 | $399 |
| 68% to 69% | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin? | 25.5¢ | – | Oct 15 | $389 |
| Huang Shih-chieh | Taoyuan Mayor Election Winner | 5.1¢ | down 1 point this week | Nov 29 | $381 |
| Yeh Yao-hui | Hualien County Magistrate Election Winner | 4.3¢ | up 0.9 points this week | Nov 29 | $363 |
| December 31 | Lai Ching-te impeached by...? | 3.0¢ | up 0.2 points this week | Jan 1 | $357 |
| Chang Chun | Hualien County Magistrate Election Winner | 4.9¢ | down 0.8 points this week | Nov 29 | $350 |
| Lin Szu-ming | Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner | 0.2¢ | up 0.1 points this week | Nov 29 | $340 |
| Tsao Erh-chang | Lienchiang County Magistrate Election Winner | 0.1¢ | – | Nov 29 | $290 |
| October 31 | Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by...? | 0.5¢ | down 5.5 points this week | Nov 1 | $272 |
| Wei Ping-cheng | Changhua County Magistrate Election Winner | 8.5¢ | – | Nov 29 | $261 |
| Chen Chien-hsien | Hsinchu County Magistrate Election Winner | 0.2¢ | up 0.2 points this week | Nov 29 | $258 |
| Lin Shih-hsien | Changhua County Magistrate Election Winner | 0.1¢ | – | Nov 29 | $224 |
| Perng Shaw-jiin | Taoyuan Mayor Election Winner | 0.1¢ | – | Nov 29 | $219 |
| Ho Chih-yung | Hsinchu City Mayor Election Winner | 2.8¢ | down 0.8 points this week | Nov 29 | $208 |
| Hsu Chih-fu | Penghu County Magistrate Election Winner | 0.2¢ | no change this week | Nov 29 | $204 |
| Lo Pei-chin | Hualien County Magistrate Election Winner | 1.0¢ | down 0.1 points this week | Nov 29 | $201 |
| Chen Pin-an | Miaoli County Magistrate Election Winner | 2.8¢ | down 0.8 points this week | Nov 29 | $182 |
| Chiu Chien-fu | Changhua County Magistrate Election Winner | 0.1¢ | – | Nov 29 | $176 |
| Wen Shih-cheng | Nantou County Magistrate Election Winner | 3.4¢ | up 0.5 points this week | Nov 29 | $173 |
| Hung Jung-chang | Changhua County Magistrate Election Winner | 0.1¢ | – | Nov 29 | $162 |
| 69%+ | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin? | 2.7¢ | – | Oct 15 | $153 |
| <66% | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin? | 3.5¢ | – | Oct 15 | $141 |
| Huang Hsiu-fang | Changhua County Magistrate Election Winner | 0.4¢ | up 0.3 points this week | Nov 29 | $136 |
| Tsai Sung-yi | Chiayi County Magistrate Election Winner | 0.7¢ | – | Nov 29 | $120 |
| October 31 | Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...? | 3.0¢ | down 0.4 points this week | Nov 1 | $115 |
| Chou Ni-an | Penghu County Magistrate Election Winner | 8.3¢ | up 2.3 points this week | Nov 29 | $115 |
| Lin Yi-feng | Tainan Mayor Election Winner | 2.6¢ | down 0.4 points this week | Nov 29 | $107 |
| Lin Chun-hsien | Tainan Mayor Election Winner | 0.5¢ | – | Nov 29 | $103 |
| Xi Jinping | Who will Trump publicly insult by October 31? | 3.3¢ | down 4.6 points this week | Oct 31 | $84 |
| Yeh Chu-lin | Penghu County Magistrate Election Winner | 11.9¢ | up 1.3 points this week | Nov 29 | $82 |
| Chen Chin-chuan | Penghu County Magistrate Election Winner | 0.6¢ | – | Nov 29 | $74 |
| Yang Cheng-wu | Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner | 0.4¢ | up 0.1 points this week | Nov 29 | $67 |
| Li Wen-liang | Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner | 3.1¢ | down 0.2 points this week | Nov 29 | $58 |
| Liang Wen-tao | Kinmen County Magistrate Election Winner | 3.9¢ | up 0.7 points this week | Nov 29 | $44 |
| December 31, 2027 | China coup attempt by...? | 22.0¢ | – | Jan 1 | $0 |