Markets
Every live Polymarket market, with its chance, the money on it and who's betting. Open one to see who's on each side, which way the money is moving and the rules.
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Every live Polymarket market, with its chance, the money on it and who's betting. Open one to see who's on each side, which way the money is moving and the rules.
| Market | Chance | Today | This week | Bet today | Room to trade | Ends | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?Geopolitics · US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? |
Live Polymarket data, read Oct 11, 2026, 16:50 UTC. Polyray is independent and not affiliated with Polymarket. Not financial advice.
| 97% |
| +1.2 pts |
| +6 pts |
| $273K |
| $213K |
| 10/13 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Geopolitics · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? | 96% | −0.8 pts | — | $225K | $75.2K | 10/16 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics · US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? | 79% | — | +7 pts | $191K | $434K | 10/31 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Geopolitics | 17% | — | +1.0 pts | $161K | $715K | 01/01 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics · NATO x Russia military clash by...? | 6% | −1.0 pts | −3 pts | $157K | $144K | 11/01 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics · US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? | 14% | −2 pts | −9 pts | $157K | $162K | 11/01 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Geopolitics · US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? | 4% | −1.8 pts | −10 pts | $149K | $226K | 10/16 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Geopolitics | 1% | −0.1 pts | −2 pts | $123K | $284K | 11/01 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?Geopolitics · US-Iran ceasefire continues through...? | 93% | +1.0 pts | +7 pts | $118K | $221K | 10/16 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? | 86% | −1.0 pts | +2 pts | $117K | $106K | 10/31 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Geopolitics | 6% | +1.0 pts | −1.0 pts | $108K | $770K | 01/01 |
| US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Geopolitics | 58% | +0.5 pts | — | $87.8K | $10.4K | 11/01 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?Geopolitics | 6% | −2 pts | +0.5 pts | $69.2K | $133K | 01/01 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Geopolitics | 16% | −2 pts | −4 pts | $61.4K | $625K | 01/01 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?Geopolitics | 2% | −0.1 pts | −0.3 pts | $51.7K | $634K | 01/01 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics · Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...? | 4% | +0.4 pts | +0.4 pts | $49.6K | $122K | 11/01 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics · Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...? | 57% | +0.5 pts | −5 pts | $36.1K | $88.2K | 12/31 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics · US announces end of Iranian blockade by...? | 43% | −0.1 pts | −10 pts | $35.7K | $205K | 01/01 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Geopolitics · Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...? | 7% | +0.5 pts | −1.0 pts | $35.6K | $221K | 11/01 |
| Will Putin hold a bilateral meeting with Ilham Aliyev in Turkmenistan?Geopolitics · Who will Putin meet bilaterally in Turkmenistan? | 19% | −20 pts | — | $35.5K | $46 | 10/11 |
| Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15?Geopolitics · Riyadh airport closed to departures for 24 hours by...? | 99% | +74 pts | — | $33.4K | $30.5K | 10/16 |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027?Geopolitics | 3% | — | +0.3 pts | $32.5K | $625K | 01/01 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics · Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? | 12% | +3 pts | +1.0 pts | $31.8K | $134K | 12/31 |
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31?Geopolitics · Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...? | 13% | −5 pts | −2 pts | $28.4K | $41.8K | 10/31 |
Chance is the Yes price: 62¢ means a 62% chance. Changes are in percentage points. Room to trade is how much you can buy or sell near today's price.