Market · 5 of 12 outcomes
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 09:59 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Snoorrason0x805a…0635 | No | 138 | 90.0¢ | $129 | Positive+$2.75 per $100 · 6,230 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 20 | 97.1¢ | $19 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,406 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 177 | 9.9¢ | $11 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 123,344 bets |
| 0x0fca…90de | Yes | 158 | 3.0¢ | $10 | New96 settled bets |
| Blackrock0x1b2f…5c5e | No | 8 | 96.2¢ | $7 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 61 | 4.0¢ | $4 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
These 12 outcomes add up to 105.7¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
US 2026 midterms · 672 events · $32.3M in play
Exactly one of this event's 12 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.