Market · 10 of 12 outcomes
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Naftali Bennett become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 07:59 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 20 | 99.3¢ | $20 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,396 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 88 | 3.4¢ | $2 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 123,093 bets |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 61 | 4.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| buoys0x7e35…1a6c | Yes | 50 | 0.7¢ | $1 | Positive+$11.47 per $100 · 2,029 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 30 | 0.8¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Snoorrason0x805a…0635 | Yes | 20 | 2.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$2.75 per $100 · 6,230 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
These 12 outcomes add up to 112.2¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
US 2026 midterms · 663 events · $32.3M in play
Exactly one of this event's 12 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.