Market · 3 of 3 outcomes
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 15:15 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 5 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BunCaCham0x996a…e3cc | No | 25,000 | 95.5¢ | $23.7K | Break-even−$0.32 per $100 · 3,728 bets |
| Lolakis0x401e…6fc9 | No | 13,481 | 95.3¢ | $12.8K | Positive |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | No | 11,111 | 95.0¢ | $10.5K | Positive+$1.10 per $100 · 22,034 bets |
| MisTKy0x35bb…009b | No | 10,471 | 95.6¢ | $9.93K | Positive+$1.10 per $100 · 1,170 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 8,898 | 95.8¢ | $8.44K | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| 202606010xb36c…1077 | No | 6,786 | 96.0¢ | $6.44K | Proven+$4.69 per $100 · 216 bets |
US 2026 midterms · 696 events · $32.6M in play
Exactly one of this event's 3 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.