Market · 3 of 3 outcomes
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 18:48 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 6 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BunCaCham0x996a…e3cc | No | 25,000 | 95.5¢ | $23.7K | Break-even−$0.32 per $100 · 3,728 bets |
| Lolakis0x401e…6fc9 | No | 13,481 | 95.3¢ | $12.8K | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 2,259 bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | No | 11,111 | 95.0¢ | $10.5K | Positive+$1.10 per $100 · 22,038 bets |
| MisTKy0x35bb…009b | No | 10,471 | 95.6¢ | $9.92K | Positive+$1.11 per $100 · 1,172 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | No | 8,898 | 95.8¢ | $8.43K | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| 202606010xb36c…1077 | No | 6,786 | 96.0¢ | $6.43K | Proven+$4.69 per $100 · 216 bets |
| betwick0xc851…cd2a | Yes | 101,818 | 4.5¢ | $5.35K | Proven+$5.31 per $100 · 770 bets |
| Tenebrus70xa8c6…44e8 | No | 5,500 | 95.6¢ | $5.21K | Break-even+$0.85 per $100 · 5,694 bets |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | No | 5,250 | 94.7¢ | $4.97K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,103 bets |
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | No | 4,006 | 94.9¢ | $3.8K | Positive+$3.92 per $100 · 1,971 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | No | 2,188 | 95.2¢ | $2.07K | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,416 bets |
| Digital-Boy0xfe41…9f23 | No | 1,400 | 95.8¢ | $1.33K | Losing−$5.45 per $100 · 4,338 bets |
| ponczyk0x535c…96ba | No | 1,049 | 96.2¢ | $994 | Losing−$2.69 per $100 · 283 bets |
| SimonaMagic1000x3333…6d86 | No | 1,046 | 95.2¢ | $991 | — |
| JokerTheClown0x819d…07f1 | No | 1,000 | 96.2¢ | $948 | Proven+$21.46 per $100 · 12,441 bets |
| whig0x40cf…d21d | No | 810 | 94.8¢ | $768 | Proven+$11.46 per $100 · 1,102 bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | Yes | 8,535 | 5.3¢ | $448 | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 636 bets |
| pilipro30x33e2…3a1b | Yes | 6,348 | 5.2¢ | $333 | Positive+$1.70 per $100 · 1,031 bets |
| Mithrandir.0xb17d…59ae | No | 300 | 96.0¢ | $284 | Positive+$1.52 per $100 · 1,983 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | Yes | 4,494 | 4.1¢ | $236 | Losing−$1.28 per $100 · 27,870 bets |
| PaddyAlpha0x9ad0…bf3d | No | 205 | 95.8¢ | $194 | Break-even+$0.61 per $100 · 3,062 bets |
| fwycfpg0xa6dc…12ec | No | 200 | 95.6¢ | $190 | — |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | 3,520 | 5.3¢ | $185 | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,273 bets |
| Praescientia0x94bb…c320 | No | 157 | 95.1¢ | $149 | Break-even+$0.39 per $100 · 6,664 bets |
| PhilIvey90xdde1…f1d7 | Yes | 2,643 | 4.8¢ | $139 | New96 settled bets |
| rocky420150x2c1a…42d8 | No | 135 | 95.5¢ | $128 | Break-even−$0.77 per $100 · 9,642 bets |
| 2sam0x9367…6eaf | No | 125 | 95.5¢ | $118 | — |
| lyx19910xef49…447c | No | 125 | 95.5¢ | $118 | — |
| bernardbulletin0x1c14…0869 | No | 100 | 95.2¢ | $95 | Proven+$11.17 per $100 · 2,364 bets |
| trashtier0x7df6…ac3b | No | 100 | 95.0¢ | $95 | Positive+$1.40 per $100 · 6,509 bets |
| Noteagle0xc2db…6865 | No | 100 | 96.6¢ | $95 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 1,757 bets |
| tandjlover0xd542…f187 | No | 67 | 97.7¢ | $63 | — |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | Yes | 1,000 | 5.8¢ | $53 | Positive+$7.23 per $100 · 10,676 bets |
| MyRisk0x648f…4b36 | No | 42 | 96.1¢ | $39 | — |
| Antony820xfd39…9ec8 | Yes | 500 | 3.8¢ | $26 | — |
| garbagefriends0xc5bd…ceaa | Yes | 477 | 5.4¢ | $25 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 1,711 bets |
| pioneers20260xa5c7…7e7b | No | 25 | 96.3¢ | $23 | — |
| 0xb6ce…895d | No | 22 | 96.3¢ | $21 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| spirited01270x4aea…faae | No | 22 | 96.3¢ | $20 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 1,798 bets |
| v2boring0x0ff9…414c | No | 20 | 96.2¢ | $19 | New42 settled bets |
| SpringlyFawl0xfbed…a665 | Yes | 342 | 33.3¢ | $18 | Positive+$11.02 per $100 · 11,252 bets |
| prose01280xc78d…87eb | No | 18 | 96.3¢ | $17 | — |
| NellyDora0xca97…5409 | Yes | 238 | 5.4¢ | $13 | Break-even+$0.21 per $100 · 1,328 bets |
| 1BTCis1BTC0xc759…b965 | Yes | 200 | 5.5¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x6904…dd04 | No | 10 | 95.6¢ | $10 | — |
| mmtrading0x5a0c…9db8 | No | 10 | 95.1¢ | $10 | Break-even−$0.32 per $100 · 14,879 bets |
| 0xe432…934a | Yes | 170 | 9.7¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 3,790 bets |
| 0x7157…e799 | Yes | 164 | 4.7¢ | $9 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 417 bets |
| EXNIHILOFX0x10a1…c3be | No | 7 | 95.2¢ | $7 | — |
| 0xa821…1fbd | Yes | 122 | 4.3¢ | $6 | — |
| 03hqmoh90x7a70…cb6f | No | 6 | 95.2¢ | $6 | — |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 101 | 4.7¢ | $5 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| 0xff7c…b233 | No | 5 | 94.8¢ | $5 | Proven+$5.56 per $100 · 3,198 bets |
| 0xaeb7…9777 | Yes | 88 | 5.3¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x1bc5…e623 | No | 5 | 95.8¢ | $5 | — |
| Zakaridoop20xef46…a547 | No | 4 | 95.1¢ | $4 | — |
| zstaxpl4fpb20x92c7…89f5 | No | 4 | 97.3¢ | $4 | — |
| big-bird10xa58f…cec8 | Yes | 61 | 5.3¢ | $3 | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 12,992 bets |
| Arealgood0x1f4e…9d5c | Yes | 52 | 4.0¢ | $3 | — |
| labronzee0xc975…1983 | Yes | 46 | 3.8¢ | $2 | — |
| ccyy20260x4282…3455 | Yes | 43 | 5.4¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.85 per $100 · 1,702 bets |
| 0x5449…992b | Yes | 41 | 5.4¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,720 bets |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 41 | 3.8¢ | $2 | Proven+$9.11 per $100 · 9,042 bets |
| sm-020x7a55…9e6b | Yes | 39 | 5.3¢ | $2 | — |
| 0x2650…44f7 | Yes | 37 | 5.4¢ | $2 | Losing−$5.39 per $100 · 1,748 bets |
| suntori0xe907…cff6 | No | 2 | 95.1¢ | $2 | Losing−$7.59 per $100 · 381,011+ bets · updating |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 22 | 4.4¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0xc84b…6023 | Yes | 22 | 5.4¢ | $1 | — |
| alemania920x4fc2…05ee | Yes | 20 | 5.2¢ | $1 | — |
| 77kbCcPrd2uG8w0x8dde…5045 | Yes | 20 | 5.4¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 174 bets |
| 0x3d03…9d52 | Yes | 16 | 5.4¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.11 per $100 · 1,102 bets |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | No | 1 | 95.2¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.62 per $100 · 14,498 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | Yes | 5 | 4.8¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.76 per $100 · 12,660 bets |
| Nopants0x94a5…4eb8 | No | 0 | 96.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.01 per $100 · 2,926 bets |
| aHjCz0x2b59…9db6 | Yes | 0 | 9.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.88 per $100 · 57,792+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 718 events · $33.3M in play
Exactly one of this event's 3 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.