Democratic Party

Decided by

The market resolves according to the party that wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 midterm election.§1

No majority

If no party wins a majority of voting seats, control goes to the party that wins half the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency.§3

Still ambiguous

If still ambiguous, the chamber is deemed controlled by the party of the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the election.§4

Independents caucusing

Independents who formally caucus with a party, or newly elected ones who announce intent to caucus, count in that party's count.§13

No caucus announcement

If no announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member counts toward no party.§15

Counted

All regular and special Senate elections determining representation in the upcoming 120th Congress scheduled for November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.§6

Source

Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.§16

Closes

Nov 4, 2026 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• Democratic Party 63.5¢
• Republican Party 36.5¢

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.