Republican Party

Decided by

The market resolves according to the party that wins control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterm election.§1

No majority

If no party wins a majority of voting seats, control goes to the party with half the voting seats that holds the Vice Presidency.§3

Still ambiguous

If still ambiguous, control is deemed held by the party of the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the election.§4

Independents unclear

If independents' caucus decisions are unknown on election day, the market may stay open until an announcement or January 4th, 11:59 PM ET.§14

No announcement

If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET, the member counts toward no party's seat count.§15

Counted

A party wins control by winning a majority of the chamber's voting seats.§2

Source

Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.§16

Closes

Nov 4, 2026 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.