D Senate, R House

Decided by

The market resolves by which party wins Senate control and which party wins House control in the 2026 midterm election.§1

No Senate majority

If no party wins a majority of voting seats, control goes to the party with half the voting seats and the Vice Presidency.§3

Ambiguous Senate

If still ambiguous, the chamber is controlled by the party of the first selected President Pro Tempore of the convening Congress.§4

No House majority

If no party wins a majority of voting seats, control goes to the party of the first elected Speaker of the convening Congress.§6

Independents caucusing

Independents who formally caucus with, or announce intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party's count.§16

Counted

Senate: regular and special elections for the 120th Congress scheduled in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026; House: elections electing voting members.§8

Source

Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.§19

Closes

Nov 4, 2026 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• Democrats Sweep 61.5¢
• R Senate, D House 28.5¢
• Republicans Sweep 8.5¢
• D Senate, R House 0.9¢
• Other 0.2¢

How these markets fit together

Adding up this event's outcomes gives Democrats a 62.3% chance of the Senate. The Senate market itself says 63.5%.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.