Market · 2 of 3 outcomes
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 19:02 UTC. Not financial advice.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | No | 15,258 | 92.1¢ | $14.3K | Positive+$3.36 per $100 · 1,955 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 4,432 | 92.0¢ | $4.14K | Losing |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | No | 1,575 | 93.0¢ | $1.47K | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,742 bets |
| MisTKy0x35bb…009b | Yes | 14,400 | 7.9¢ | $936 | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 1,153 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 300 | 92.0¢ | $281 | — |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | No | 200 | 91.0¢ | $187 | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,099 bets |
1 account bets both sides equally · 100 shares each side · Show
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US 2026 midterms · 609 events · $32M in play
Exactly one of this event's 3 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.