Market · 2 of 3 outcomes
Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 20:13 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| classified0x12d6…f2a8 | No | 15,258 | 92.1¢ | $14.3K | Positive+$3.55 per $100 · 1,959 bets |
| lissartter0x1cfc…2111 | No | 4,432 | 92.0¢ | $4.14K | Losing−$1.27 per $100 · 27,816 bets |
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | No | 1,575 | 93.0¢ | $1.47K | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,742 bets |
| MisTKy0x35bb…009b | Yes | 14,197 | 7.9¢ | $923 | Positive+$1.10 per $100 · 1,161 bets |
| GuyFromTinder0x2b9d…95f4 | No | 300 | 92.0¢ | $281 | — |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | No | 200 | 91.0¢ | $187 | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,102 bets |
| groth0x71ab…f015 | Yes | 2,000 | 6.0¢ | $130 | Proven+$20.70 per $100 · 539 bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | Yes | 1,745 | 8.6¢ | $113 | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 625 bets |
| rainbowlilies0x2106…4dea | Yes | 1,700 | 6.6¢ | $111 | Positive+$6.97 per $100 · 10,606 bets |
| Isengard10x9032…b5c3 | No | 100 | 92.9¢ | $94 | — |
| AlphaGooo0xfc55…b21d | Yes | 1,039 | 8.0¢ | $68 | — |
| Praescientia0x94bb…c320 | No | 59 | 92.3¢ | $55 | Break-even+$0.39 per $100 · 6,664 bets |
| tandjlover0xd542…f187 | No | 43 | 95.2¢ | $40 | — |
| Sp0rtBaby0x8482…3f7a | No | 39 | 94.0¢ | $36 | — |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | Yes | 555 | 8.0¢ | $36 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 10,253 bets |
| suraxy0xa9ac…c5d1 | Yes | 500 | 6.0¢ | $33 | Proven+$2.38 per $100 · 2,851 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 367 | 6.4¢ | $24 | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 5,411 bets |
| RolandZhang0x0cd6…2784 | Yes | 208 | 7.3¢ | $14 | — |
| 0x12b3…e104 | Yes | 208 | 6.2¢ | $14 | — |
| 0x57e7…84e9 | Yes | 172 | 7.3¢ | $11 | Losing−$3.66 per $100 · 10,324 bets |
| 0x7130…5387 | Yes | 171 | 6.3¢ | $11 | — |
| 0xe432…934a | Yes | 171 | 19.2¢ | $11 | Break-even−$0.41 per $100 · 3,790 bets |
| 0x65a2…6950 | Yes | 145 | 6.2¢ | $9 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 144 | 6.0¢ | $9 | Losing−$6.47 per $100 · 30,061+ bets · updating |
| CryptoGerm0x807c…f1e3 | Yes | 100 | 7.0¢ | $7 | — |
| trader-9b7793990x9b77…53cd | Yes | 90 | 6.2¢ | $6 | — |
| Arealgood0x1f4e…9d5c | Yes | 52 | 6.2¢ | $3 | — |
| neverhackme0x7df0…0dfe | Yes | 40 | 6.0¢ | $3 | — |
| po-ly28-test-user60x53f8…5ce0 | Yes | 28 | 7.3¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.10 per $100 · 533 bets |
| 0x8570…a6c8 | Yes | 28 | 6.2¢ | $2 | — |
| S8880x0711…f03c | Yes | 18 | 7.3¢ | $1 | Proven+$9.13 per $100 · 9,031 bets |
| 0x5449…992b | Yes | 14 | 8.3¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.18 per $100 · 6,692 bets |
| 0xb6ce…895d | Yes | 13 | 7.0¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.74 per $100 · 1,065 bets |
| 0x2650…44f7 | Yes | 13 | 8.4¢ | $1 | — |
| OffRoadTraveler0x0620…42ff | Yes | 4 | 8.0¢ | $0 | — |
| UntitledUser10x43b9…5db9 | No | 0 | 92.3¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.47 per $100 · 569 bets |
| doctorno990x4e2d…4936 | No | 0 | 94.2¢ | $0 | — |
| Nopants0x94a5…4eb8 | No | 0 | 92.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.01 per $100 · 2,926 bets |
| Dr.PNL0xc602…7fc1 | No | 0 | 93.0¢ | $0 | Losing−$10.54 per $100 · 33,629+ bets · updating |
| aHjCz0x2b59…9db6 | Yes | 0 | 19.6¢ | $0 | Positive+$6.81 per $100 · 29,827+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 613 events · $32M in play
Exactly one of this event's 3 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.