Republican Party

Decided by

The market resolves by which party wins control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm election.§1

No majority

If no party wins a majority of voting seats, control goes to the party of the first elected Speaker of the convening Congress.§3

Runoffs

Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result determines attribution of that seat.§6

Party switch or vacancy

A member-elect who changes party or vacates their seat before Congress organizes keeps the seat for the party they were elected under.§8

No caucus announcement

If no announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member counts for no party.§11

Counted

House elections in the 2026 midterm that elect voting members and determine representation in the 120th Congress.§5

Source

Official information from state electoral authorities, the U.S. Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.§12

Closes

Nov 4, 2026 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• Democratic Party 90.5¢
• Republican Party 9.5¢

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.