Democrats Sweep

Decided by

The market resolves on which party wins control of the U.S. Senate and which party wins control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms.§1

No Senate majority

If no party wins a majority of Senate voting seats, control goes to the party with half the voting seats that holds the Vice Presidency.§3

Senate still ambiguous

If the outcome is still ambiguous, the chamber is deemed controlled by the party of the first selected President Pro Tempore of the convening Congress.§4

No House majority

If no party wins a House majority of voting seats, control goes to the party of the first elected Speaker of the convening Congress.§6

Independent caucuses

Independents who formally caucus with, or newly elected ones who announce intent to caucus with, a party are counted in that party's count.§16

Counted

Senate: regular and special elections for the 120th Congress set for November 2026 as of Oct 31, 2026; House: House elections electing voting members.§8

Source

Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.§19

Closes

Nov 4, 2026 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• Democrats Sweep 61.5¢
• R Senate, D House 28.5¢
• Republicans Sweep 8.5¢
• D Senate, R House 0.9¢
• Other 0.2¢

How these markets fit together

Democrats have a 63.5% chance of the Senate and 61.5% of sweeping both. So if Democrats take the Senate, the market expects them to take the House too, 96.9% of the time.

Adding up this event's outcomes gives Democrats a 62.3% chance of the Senate. The Senate market itself says 63.5%.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.