Market · 1 of 5 outcomes
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 10:47 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2026 midterms · 676 events · $32.3M in play
Democrats have a 63.5% chance of the Senate and 61.5% of sweeping both. So if Democrats take the Senate, the market expects them to take the House too, of the time.
Adding up this event's outcomes gives Democrats a chance of the Senate. The Senate market itself says 63.5%.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 13 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
17 proven traders are on Yes, 8 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TeamA0x9ba9…3ce9 | Yes | 359,955 | 66.6¢ | $221K | New1 settled bet |
| BreakTheBank0xf031…c80c | Yes | 161,144 | 64.0¢ | $99.1K | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| 0x8b4b…541b | Yes | 153,656 | 63.1¢ | $94.5K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 868 bets |
| Monopoly_Money0x7ea7…79ac | Yes | 123,226 | 50.0¢ | $75.8K | Losing−$4.86 per $100 · 289 bets |
| DOF20xd2cb…b9ea | Yes | 75,000 | 64.1¢ | $46.1K | New1 settled bet |
| RememberAmalek0x6139…6b7a | Yes | 72,277 | 35.7¢ | $44.5K | Proven+$3.87 per $100 · 2,102 bets |
| Loyalty-Crash0x44d9…4c1a | Yes | 60,726 | 45.8¢ | $37.3K | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 180 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 54,645 | 46.8¢ | $33.6K | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,414 bets |
| zerosmart0x2755…5016 | Yes | 52,640 | 50.5¢ | $32.4K | Proven+$75.16 per $100 · 154 bets |
| frenchlaundry0x1c3c…1b01 | Yes | 50,000 | 63.0¢ | $30.7K | New91 settled bets |
| Eatpraylove0xc021…1fa8 | Yes | 45,533 | 33.1¢ | $28K | Proven+$2.20 per $100 · 1,792 bets |
| PropheticFire0xf566…1386 | Yes | 37,774 | 49.0¢ | $23.2K | New68 settled bets |
| wan1230xde7b…5f4b | Yes | 34,570 | 41.5¢ | $21.3K | Proven+$8.03 per $100 · 528 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | Yes | 33,036 | 53.7¢ | $20.3K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| 0x10b3…40d4 | No | 50,000 | 36.9¢ | $19.3K | Break-even+$0.15 per $100 · 678 bets |
| Joe-Biden0x8b5a…00f2 | No | 50,000 | 37.2¢ | $19.2K | Proven+$16.39 per $100 · 383 bets |
| almost-never0x88b5…205c | Yes | 31,300 | 62.3¢ | $19.2K | Positive+$2.60 per $100 · 484 bets |
| Brokie0x1e1f…c855 | Yes | 30,162 | 47.3¢ | $18.5K | Proven+$2.07 per $100 · 1,049 bets |
| bullishkirby0x515e…8309 | No | 40,000 | 37.9¢ | $15.4K | Losing−$1.42 per $100 · 227 bets |
| BiDiFakePolls0xd24b…ef76 | Yes | 25,000 | 62.0¢ | $15.4K | Proven+$13.35 per $100 · 374 bets |
| zb80x0224…292a | Yes | 22,989 | 44.6¢ | $14.1K | Positive+$1.39 per $100 · 1,467 bets |
| Anjun0x4337…8882 | Yes | 22,222 | 62.0¢ | $13.7K | Positive+$1.08 per $100 · 22,021 bets |
| kekw0xfe4a…bc74 | Yes | 20,864 | 36.7¢ | $12.8K | Proven+$8.19 per $100 · 143 bets |
| tunatyler0xf1f9…1245 | Yes | 20,000 | 46.5¢ | $12.3K | Proven+$6.66 per $100 · 2,308 bets |
| Lolakis0x401e…6fc9 | Yes | 19,848 | 64.0¢ | $12.2K | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 2,259 bets |
| moneymakingmachine0x420e…e3c9 | Yes | 15,000 | 48.2¢ | $9.23K | Losing−$3.29 per $100 · 1,690 bets |
| NihilisticMeerkat0xd8ca…7229 | Yes | 14,878 | 47.3¢ | $9.15K | Positive+$1.25 per $100 · 282 bets |
| ocpna0x3106…d672 | Yes | 14,641 | 55.6¢ | $9K | Proven+$7.77 per $100 · 335 bets |
| ethBELIVER0x05f6…25a1 | Yes | 13,876 | 46.4¢ | $8.53K | New55 settled bets |
| arvinlleva940x8788…0e05 | No | 22,013 | 49.3¢ | $8.48K | New2 settled bets |
| The-Joker0x9aeb…2729 | Yes | 13,514 | 64.8¢ | $8.31K | Proven+$2.98 per $100 · 2,738 bets |
| Mangy620xcc50…df9b | Yes | 12,997 | 48.1¢ | $7.99K | Proven+$6.67 per $100 · 342 bets |
| thanks4playing0xaa6e…04fe | No | 20,000 | 54.2¢ | $7.7K | New9 settled bets |
| flawfence0x23d8…0288 | No | 20,000 | 35.0¢ | $7.7K | Proven+$3.89 per $100 · 729 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | Yes | 12,307 | 62.6¢ | $7.57K | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| sabsabinxz0xd3ec…6603 | Yes | 12,200 | 64.7¢ | $7.5K | Proven+$23.86 per $100 · 101 bets |
| apmt0x328d…f7a9 | Yes | 12,000 | 47.0¢ | $7.38K | Proven+$9.98 per $100 · 114 bets |
| 0x91c3…409f | No | 19,159 | 39.1¢ | $7.38K | New0 settled bets |
| hideo0x95bf…e00b | Yes | 11,905 | 42.0¢ | $7.32K | Proven+$3.41 per $100 · 384 bets |
| MJB0x394e…b5bf | Yes | 11,479 | 63.9¢ | $7.06K | New2 settled bets |
| LlamaEnjoyer0x9b97…5e12 | Yes | 11,000 | 23.0¢ | $6.77K | Break-even+$0.54 per $100 · 5,558 bets |
| Dude21370x3407…c3eb | Yes | 10,900 | 60.1¢ | $6.7K | Losing−$5.75 per $100 · 163 bets |
| purplegatto0x032e…2a9e | Yes | 10,454 | 63.8¢ | $6.43K | Losing−$7.02 per $100 · 15,941 bets |
| manekineko0x6606…1338 | Yes | 10,027 | 65.9¢ | $6.17K | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 545 bets |
| 0xcdc0…dcd8 | Yes | 10,000 | 63.1¢ | $6.15K | Positive+$1.49 per $100 · 406 bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | Yes | 10,000 | 66.0¢ | $6.15K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 625 bets |
| maritime63070x5c29…358e | No | 12,619 | 44.4¢ | $4.86K | Losing−$13.57 per $100 · 115 bets |
| PetuniaPettigrew0xd987…ae37 | No | 12,000 | 39.0¢ | $4.62K | New9 settled bets |
| rancidpus0x926e…c009 | No | 10,263 | 38.9¢ | $3.95K | New0 settled bets |
| rebotsliaf0x2061…8ec9 | No | 10,059 | 39.6¢ | $3.87K | Positive+$3.46 per $100 · 888 bets |
| su2810x9106…afcb | No | 9,999 | 38.0¢ | $3.85K | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 1,966 bets |
| cowcat0x38e5…95e7 | No | 9,893 | 50.1¢ | $3.81K | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 6,730 bets |
| tmoneeey0xa974…ef79 | No | 9,890 | 55.7¢ | $3.81K | Break-even+$0.55 per $100 · 753 bets |
| alexhamilton0xd1e8…27b1 | No | 8,754 | 58.3¢ | $3.37K | New3 settled bets |
| 111220x011f…1122 | No | 8,754 | 40.9¢ | $3.37K | Positive+$1.55 per $100 · 5,659 bets |
| ohwell0x6902…678c | No | 8,748 | 63.6¢ | $3.37K | Proven+$3.38 per $100 · 354 bets |
| fwed330x1461…30a1 | No | 7,307 | 63.4¢ | $2.81K | Losing−$8.44 per $100 · 1,900 bets |
| SunlineTicker0x4df3…788f | No | 6,696 | 35.6¢ | $2.58K | Positive+$1.90 per $100 · 16,314 bets |
| BlueBase-5680x6c43…fb9b | No | 6,000 | 44.0¢ | $2.31K | Proven+$2.95 per $100 · 2,399 bets |
| miaogongzhu0xce53…d32d | No | 5,633 | 53.8¢ | $2.17K | New22 settled bets |
| 0x16cb…2704 | No | 5,412 | 48.9¢ | $2.08K | Proven+$2.02 per $100 · 7,120 bets |
| rugmaster20000x1b2c…f03f | No | 5,259 | 58.0¢ | $2.02K | New33 settled bets |
| zzaqq20xd331…733c | No | 5,004 | 55.5¢ | $1.93K | Losing−$9.72 per $100 · 4,328 bets |
| crypto-basenji0x72f7…92f7 | No | 5,000 | 35.9¢ | $1.93K | Proven+$3.15 per $100 · 460 bets |
| Polyticks0xfdfc…288c | No | 5,000 | 50.0¢ | $1.93K | Proven+$3.94 per $100 · 139 bets |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | No | 4,947 | 47.0¢ | $1.9K | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 22,911 bets |
| LeopoldArschenbrenner0x8671…d4b7 | No | 4,723 | 43.6¢ | $1.82K | New41 settled bets |
| timetowander0x58b3…653c | No | 4,203 | 38.0¢ | $1.62K | Positive+$3.07 per $100 · 1,514 bets |
| sweetj0x39a5…87f2 | No | 4,172 | 44.1¢ | $1.61K | Break-even+$0.80 per $100 · 3,603 bets |
| 0xcb01…7dfb | No | 3,755 | 34.9¢ | $1.45K | Proven+$2.02 per $100 · 6,534 bets |
| Jgborn0xc1b7…e00b | No | 3,708 | 37.9¢ | $1.43K | New15 settled bets |
| JAMJAMJAM40xe8c4…395d | No | 3,376 | 36.9¢ | $1.3K | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 7,027 bets |
| euro-catcher0xc2e5…b3a5 | No | 3,000 | 34.9¢ | $1.16K | Losing−$4.50 per $100 · 4,780 bets |
| KimJonEn0x8152…bfda | No | 3,000 | 54.9¢ | $1.15K | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 1,459 bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | No | 470 | 55.5¢ | $181 | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
13 accounts bet both sides equally · 4.08M shares each side · Show
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