Market · 2 of 5 outcomes
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 22:38 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2026 midterms · 619 events · $32.1M in play
Adding up this event's outcomes gives Democrats a chance of the Senate. The Senate market itself says 63.5%.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 3 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
16 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BreakTheBank0xf031…c80c | No | 198,118 | 70.7¢ | $142K | Proven+$3.66 per $100 · 1,063 bets |
| lomneivan0x1fee…ed5e | Yes | 420,100 | 9.2¢ | $120K |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| 111220x011f…1122 | Yes | 166,378 | 23.6¢ | $47.4K | Positive+$1.55 per $100 · 5,659 bets |
| sportsdood0xfb66…4403 | Yes | 140,858 | 28.8¢ | $40.1K | New5 settled bets |
| NefariousX0xa1ed…e774 | Yes | 117,231 | 36.9¢ | $33.4K | Losing−$6.45 per $100 · 101 bets |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | Yes | 115,052 | 29.3¢ | $32.8K | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
3 accounts bet both sides equally · 56.9K shares each side · Show
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