Market · 2 of 5 outcomes
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 04:00 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2026 midterms · 650 events · $32.2M in play
Adding up this event's outcomes gives Democrats a chance of the Senate. The Senate market itself says 63.5%.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 3 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
16 proven traders are on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BreakTheBank0xf031…c80c | No | 198,118 | 70.7¢ | $142K | Proven+$4.09 per $100 · 1,071 bets |
| lomneivan0x1fee…ed5e | Yes | 420,100 | 9.2¢ | $120K |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| 111220x011f…1122 | Yes | 166,378 | 23.6¢ | $47.4K | Positive+$1.55 per $100 · 5,659 bets |
| sportsdood0xfb66…4403 | Yes | 140,858 | 28.8¢ | $40.1K | New5 settled bets |
| NefariousX0xa1ed…e774 | Yes | 117,231 | 36.9¢ | $33.4K | Losing−$6.45 per $100 · 101 bets |
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | Yes | 115,876 | 29.3¢ | $33K | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
| 0x4488…e319 | Yes | 100,000 | 28.5¢ | $28.5K | Positive+$1.31 per $100 · 7,572 bets |
| Stonktrader0x73e3…3239 | Yes | 100,000 | 29.8¢ | $28.5K | Positive+$2.02 per $100 · 519 bets |
| wan1230xde7b…5f4b | Yes | 100,000 | 28.4¢ | $28.5K | Proven+$7.88 per $100 · 526 bets |
| Eatpraylove0xc021…1fa8 | Yes | 66,234 | 29.2¢ | $18.9K | Proven+$2.20 per $100 · 1,792 bets |
| su2810x9106…afcb | No | 22,075 | 70.5¢ | $15.8K | Break-even+$0.19 per $100 · 1,965 bets |
| f0afjr0xb911…0d3e | Yes | 50,747 | 28.6¢ | $14.5K | New0 settled bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | Yes | 46,603 | 32.2¢ | $13.3K | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 5,411 bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | Yes | 35,000 | 29.0¢ | $9.97K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 625 bets |
| Sunguyen860x7d83…be92 | Yes | 33,295 | 29.8¢ | $9.49K | New1 settled bet |
| smoovster0xfa77…563b | Yes | 29,721 | 34.5¢ | $8.47K | New50 settled bets |
| Arbguy0x53e5…6177 | Yes | 26,638 | 42.0¢ | $7.59K | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 1,106 bets |
| 0x8b4b…541b | No | 8,808 | 72.0¢ | $6.3K | Break-even−$0.72 per $100 · 868 bets |
| Funfzig0x5e9c…cd75 | Yes | 16,576 | 53.4¢ | $4.72K | Break-even+$0.36 per $100 · 1,061 bets |
| tmoneeey0xa974…ef79 | Yes | 16,121 | 35.9¢ | $4.59K | Break-even+$0.55 per $100 · 753 bets |
| pax0xbfee…7272 | Yes | 13,400 | 27.8¢ | $3.82K | New32 settled bets |
| thanks4playing0xaa6e…04fe | Yes | 12,905 | 36.9¢ | $3.68K | New9 settled bets |
| hideo0x95bf…e00b | Yes | 12,500 | 40.0¢ | $3.56K | Proven+$3.41 per $100 · 384 bets |
| 0x8b71…8044 | Yes | 12,388 | 34.6¢ | $3.53K | Proven+$4.95 per $100 · 201 bets |
| pantomime0xd039…2532 | Yes | 12,103 | 27.8¢ | $3.45K | Proven+$2.11 per $100 · 3,792 bets |
| EducatedGuess694200xed49…8783 | Yes | 11,829 | 31.3¢ | $3.37K | New84 settled bets |
| LlamaEnjoyer0x9b97…5e12 | Yes | 11,000 | 23.0¢ | $3.14K | Break-even+$0.54 per $100 · 5,558 bets |
| Polyticks0xfdfc…288c | Yes | 10,000 | 36.0¢ | $2.85K | Proven+$3.94 per $100 · 139 bets |
| oxbus0x6be0…9ac7 | Yes | 9,999 | 29.0¢ | $2.85K | Break-even+$0.05 per $100 · 2,322 bets |
| 0x4e25…d7a7 | Yes | 9,619 | 33.4¢ | $2.74K | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 10,029 bets |
| 0x1dc6…fb06 | Yes | 9,296 | 34.9¢ | $2.65K | Proven+$2.01 per $100 · 366 bets |
| jadexxade0x5792…d1d6 | No | 3,375 | 64.1¢ | $2.41K | New38 settled bets |
| LEICHTT0x412c…97d3 | No | 3,245 | 64.3¢ | $2.32K | New21 settled bets |
| style-points0x1ff2…4702 | Yes | 8,000 | 23.0¢ | $2.28K | Proven+$2.36 per $100 · 460 bets |
| XXININ0x13b2…f4c3 | No | 3,016 | 64.3¢ | $2.16K | New24 settled bets |
| Koolio0xf330…f779 | Yes | 7,500 | 35.0¢ | $2.14K | Proven+$2.09 per $100 · 150 bets |
| corylean0x891c…061b | No | 2,828 | 64.1¢ | $2.02K | New35 settled bets |
| ppppddd0x6d92…fc85 | No | 2,806 | 64.2¢ | $2.01K | New26 settled bets |
| 456ythgbvcadscvb0xeb6f…25f0 | Yes | 7,000 | 34.8¢ | $1.99K | Positive+$1.24 per $100 · 1,517 bets |
| MisTKy0x35bb…009b | Yes | 6,997 | 30.8¢ | $1.99K | Positive+$1.10 per $100 · 1,167 bets |
| laneyexercit0x14e3…4b57 | No | 2,732 | 64.3¢ | $1.95K | New19 settled bets |
| mountaindewd0x944e…8c94 | Yes | 6,822 | 29.7¢ | $1.94K | Proven+$9.46 per $100 · 748 bets |
| Folletin0x08c8…1da2 | Yes | 6,799 | 36.2¢ | $1.94K | Proven+$5.44 per $100 · 712 bets |
| puravida0x80a4…22cc | No | 2,672 | 72.0¢ | $1.91K | Proven+$2.23 per $100 · 2,742 bets |
| smdx0x9ec3…3cdc | No | 2,639 | 65.0¢ | $1.89K | New83 settled bets |
| jamessx0xf102…7ebf | No | 2,543 | 64.2¢ | $1.82K | New39 settled bets |
| flawfence0x23d8…0288 | Yes | 6,296 | 30.0¢ | $1.79K | Proven+$3.89 per $100 · 729 bets |
| 0xd640…480c | Yes | 6,193 | 30.8¢ | $1.76K | Losing−$32.74 per $100 · 775 bets |
| zlt010x1044…d67a | No | 2,450 | 61.0¢ | $1.75K | Losing−$1.85 per $100 · 4,795 bets |
| smoovdawg0x7345…87cf | Yes | 6,098 | 42.0¢ | $1.74K | New60 settled bets |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | Yes | 6,041 | 29.8¢ | $1.72K | Positive+$5.59 per $100 · 87,228 bets |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly0xc8ab…6418 | Yes | 6,000 | 27.9¢ | $1.71K | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 65,044 bets |
| monteen0x4762…d76c | No | 2,361 | 65.0¢ | $1.69K | New64 settled bets |
| MrMarket0xf769…0114 | Yes | 5,875 | 35.2¢ | $1.67K | Break-even+$0.83 per $100 · 755 bets |
| choohkz230x10fb…c66c | Yes | 5,853 | 42.2¢ | $1.67K | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 1,027 bets |
| btclon0x3a4f…daa9 | No | 2,175 | 64.3¢ | $1.56K | New52 settled bets |
| dooo110x6de6…c7b1 | No | 2,173 | 64.3¢ | $1.55K | New25 settled bets |
| Cryptodoug0x67eb…e055 | Yes | 5,240 | 30.0¢ | $1.49K | New30 settled bets |
| laronmacgyv0xbab0…8b25 | Yes | 5,207 | 35.7¢ | $1.48K | New9 settled bets |
| camrynhuds0x72d0…676f | No | 2,053 | 64.3¢ | $1.47K | New8 settled bets |
| 0x095d…52cf | No | 2,026 | 65.0¢ | $1.45K | Losing−$2.80 per $100 · 676 bets |
| colinidnug0x168b…11dd | No | 2,015 | 65.0¢ | $1.44K | New58 settled bets |
| haleigheo0x409e…129d | No | 2,015 | 64.2¢ | $1.44K | New10 settled bets |
| Geminae.Columbae0x61ea…bbf7 | Yes | 5,000 | 31.9¢ | $1.42K | New98 settled bets |
| Zachfabi0x79b5…d9bf | Yes | 5,000 | 40.0¢ | $1.42K | New21 settled bets |
| whig0x40cf…d21d | Yes | 4,887 | 33.0¢ | $1.39K | Proven+$11.57 per $100 · 1,091 bets |
| shenzzz0xf9ae…275d | No | 1,945 | 65.0¢ | $1.39K | New19 settled bets |
| syzj0x78ac…14cb | No | 1,852 | 64.2¢ | $1.32K | New25 settled bets |
| 0x2a94…241e | No | 1,839 | 64.2¢ | $1.31K | New16 settled bets |
| graycepurdyx0x8150…e38f | No | 1,818 | 64.0¢ | $1.3K | New7 settled bets |
| 0x16cb…2704 | Yes | 4,540 | 35.6¢ | $1.29K | Proven+$2.02 per $100 · 7,120 bets |
| LASERC0xd62f…9401 | No | 1,807 | 65.0¢ | $1.29K | New25 settled bets |
| 0xbf93…5730 | No | 1,799 | 64.3¢ | $1.29K | New9 settled bets |
| gandalf0x21f9…ed12 | Yes | 4,394 | 51.0¢ | $1.25K | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 1,386 bets |
| zmnp0xf9db…cfe4 | No | 1,725 | 64.0¢ | $1.23K | New58 settled bets |
| 0xb3c5…44fc | No | 1,662 | 64.1¢ | $1.19K | New5 settled bets |
| fek0x8a60…8b05 | No | 1,646 | 65.0¢ | $1.18K | New47 settled bets |
| maidakriseg0x4be0…d9ab | No | 1,624 | 64.3¢ | $1.16K | New36 settled bets |
| DreamyDre0xe3ed…d8f6 | Yes | 4,010 | 36.0¢ | $1.14K | New41 settled bets |
| fsdfge0x385d…f011 | No | 1,576 | 64.3¢ | $1.13K | New53 settled bets |
| ciaragoldn0x24e2…80f1 | No | 1,504 | 64.0¢ | $1.08K | New6 settled bets |
| Pol.10xd3a7…3362 | No | 1,500 | 71.4¢ | $1.07K | Break-even+$0.06 per $100 · 301 bets |
| gretchenrep0xd0b3…75cb | No | 1,485 | 64.3¢ | $1.06K | New6 settled bets |
| bigwinner-lm0x23b6…3eee | No | 1,478 | 64.0¢ | $1.06K | New59 settled bets |
| fwed330x1461…30a1 | No | 1,476 | 57.4¢ | $1.06K | Losing−$8.44 per $100 · 1,900 bets |
| marbt0x009d…47d3 | No | 1,469 | 64.2¢ | $1.05K | New55 settled bets |
| adolphusenimm0x3829…92f9 | No | 1,469 | 64.2¢ | $1.05K | New54 settled bets |
| wilfordw0x0e2b…cb9d | No | 1,437 | 64.2¢ | $1.03K | New10 settled bets |
| HarlanTroy0xe807…e6e7 | No | 1,405 | 64.0¢ | $1K | New47 settled bets |
| ZHIFOU0xf25c…fe82 | No | 1,371 | 64.0¢ | $980 | — |
| arturovo0x1444…6dbe | No | 1,363 | 64.0¢ | $975 | — |
| gusquioikrtlokd0xf835…cb6e | No | 1,038 | 64.0¢ | $742 | New53 settled bets |
| flodarexzo0xc67a…e91b | No | 936 | 64.0¢ | $669 | New16 settled bets |
| longlongbtc0xc51a…417d | No | 824 | 64.0¢ | $589 | New25 settled bets |
| kaseygrimes0x15e8…a09b | No | 707 | 64.0¢ | $506 | New7 settled bets |
| Sparklingasdf0x09e7…7901 | No | 677 | 64.0¢ | $484 | New34 settled bets |
3 accounts bet both sides equally · 56.9K shares each side · Show
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