Republicans Sweep

Decided by

The market resolves by the party that wins control of the U.S. Senate and the party that wins control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm election.§1

No Senate majority

If no party wins a majority of Senate voting seats, control goes to the party with half the voting seats that holds the Vice Presidency.§3

Senate still ambiguous

If the outcome stays ambiguous, control goes to the party of the first selected President Pro Tempore of the convening Congress.§4

No House majority

If no party wins a majority of House voting seats, control goes to the party of the first elected Speaker of the convening Congress.§6

Runoffs

Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result decides the seat, even after November 2026.§11

Counted

Senate: regular and special elections for the 120th Congress scheduled in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026; House: 2026 elections electing voting members.§8

Source

Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.§19

Closes

Nov 4, 2026 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• Democrats Sweep 61.5¢
• R Senate, D House 28.5¢
• Republicans Sweep 8.5¢
• D Senate, R House 0.9¢
• Other 0.2¢

How these markets fit together

Republicans have a 36.5% chance of the Senate and 8.5% of sweeping both. So if Republicans take the Senate, the market expects them to take the House too, 23.3% of the time.

Adding up this event's outcomes gives Democrats a 62.3% chance of the Senate. The Senate market itself says 63.5%.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.