Market · 3 of 5 outcomes
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 22:40 UTC. Not financial advice.
| If you bet | You pay | Moves the price |
|---|---|---|
| $1,000 | 9.0¢ | +0.5 pts |
| $10,000 | 9.2¢ | +0.7 pts |
| $100,000 | 10.7¢ | +2.2 pts |
| $500,000 | 21.0¢ | +12.5 pts |
Right now you can buy Yes at and sell at 8¢.
About $125K can be bought and $235K sold within 2¢ of today's price, so most bets get in close to it.
Measured from 8.5¢, the middle of buy and sell. As of 22:40 UTC.
US 2026 midterms · 619 events · $32.1M in play
Republicans have a 36.5% chance of the Senate and 8.5% of sweeping both. So if Republicans take the Senate, the market expects them to take the House too, of the time.
Adding up this event's outcomes gives Democrats a chance of the Senate. The Senate market itself says 63.5%.