Market · 3 of 5 outcomes
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 21:36 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2026 midterms · 615 events · $32M in play
Republicans have a 36.5% chance of the Senate and 8.5% of sweeping both. So if Republicans take the Senate, the market expects them to take the House too, of the time.
Adding up this event's outcomes gives Democrats a chance of the Senate. The Senate market itself says 63.5%.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
4 proven traders are on Yes, 19 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SlavaUkraini0xe899…0899 | No | 335,466 | 91.0¢ | $307K | Proven+$4.28 per $100 · 296 bets |
| plumbis0x77fb…266c | No | 251,554 | 91.7¢ | $230K | Proven+$3.38 per $100 · 136 bets |
| schizohedgehog0x4755…4158 | No | 167,687 | 89.6¢ | $153K | New63 settled bets |
| FlyingPlaty0x1295…5cfd | No | 143,354 | 90.8¢ | $131K | Break-even−$0.81 per $100 · 2,163 bets |
| Andylow50xf96d…214b | Yes | 1,419,557 | 8.4¢ | $121K | New1 settled bet |
| tourists0xc6dd…4b9f | No | 110,000 | 90.5¢ | $101K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 929 bets |
| burrito3380x1489…1307 | No | 109,240 | 92.2¢ | $100K | Proven+$5.01 per $100 · 104 bets |
| scottilicious0x000d…758e | No | 82,016 | 91.3¢ | $75K | Proven+$2.76 per $100 · 1,310 bets |
| ProfessionalPunter0x22e4…ef1c | No | 75,000 | 92.0¢ | $68.6K | Proven+$4.52 per $100 · 1,293 bets |
| Valen90x162f…798d | No | 72,986 | 91.9¢ | $66.8K | Proven+$2.48 per $100 · 882 bets |
| RockyZet0x368b…2458 | No | 67,342 | 92.0¢ | $61.6K | Positive+$1.16 per $100 · 506 bets |
| Tigerofthehood0x9c26…74bc | No | 42,931 | 90.0¢ | $39.3K | Positive+$1.01 per $100 · 237 bets |
| lastminwin0xb5d1…6e35 | No | 41,528 | 88.0¢ | $38K | New6 settled bets |
| pwnatorul0x3eba…849a | No | 37,000 | 93.0¢ | $33.9K | New47 settled bets |
| PolBandit0x15fd…cc95 | No | 36,850 | 92.3¢ | $33.7K | New86 settled bets |
| pantomime0xd039…2532 | No | 35,000 | 92.0¢ | $32K | Proven+$2.11 per $100 · 3,792 bets |
| carlaAB0x9386…fdfe | No | 27,637 | 92.3¢ | $25.3K | Proven+$2.41 per $100 · 351 bets |
| xixingxiaoqi0x959d…a0f0 | Yes | 288,459 | 8.5¢ | $24.5K | New3 settled bets |
| Folletin0x08c8…1da2 | No | 26,401 | 92.0¢ | $24.2K | Proven+$5.44 per $100 · 712 bets |
| Steve18180x60a3…378d | Yes | 243,974 | 10.9¢ | $20.7K | New9 settled bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | No | 22,238 | 89.1¢ | $20.3K | Positive+$1.44 per $100 · 5,411 bets |
| 18in36out0xa684…a33f | No | 22,000 | 92.3¢ | $20.1K | New28 settled bets |
| MisTKy0x35bb…009b | No | 21,500 | 92.0¢ | $19.7K | Positive+$1.10 per $100 · 1,161 bets |
| ED999990xdf17…97d1 | No | 20,521 | 91.5¢ | $18.8K | Proven+$3.46 per $100 · 1,712 bets |
| 0x39aa…583c | No | 20,456 | 92.2¢ | $18.7K | Break-even+$0.68 per $100 · 22,691 bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | No | 20,000 | 92.0¢ | $18.3K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 625 bets |
| Bet1nthedark0x8b88…5f5e | No | 20,000 | 90.4¢ | $18.3K | Losing−$1.48 per $100 · 263 bets |
| TradeDeficitArchitect0x477f…19aa | No | 20,000 | 83.7¢ | $18.3K | Proven+$6.37 per $100 · 2,801 bets |
| randomaccount70x88bb…c12b | Yes | 210,314 | 16.0¢ | $17.9K | New2 settled bets |
| lukny14100xee31…4735 | No | 18,336 | 93.3¢ | $16.8K | New59 settled bets |
| Eatpraylove0xc021…1fa8 | No | 17,999 | 91.3¢ | $16.5K | Proven+$2.20 per $100 · 1,792 bets |
| imnewhere1230xab95…4a76 | Yes | 182,993 | 9.3¢ | $15.6K | New0 settled bets |
| bullishkirby0x515e…8309 | Yes | 171,101 | 8.6¢ | $14.5K | Losing−$1.42 per $100 · 227 bets |
| BreakTheBank0xf031…c80c | Yes | 167,970 | 8.0¢ | $14.3K | Proven+$3.66 per $100 · 1,063 bets |
| hideo0x95bf…e00b | No | 15,305 | 85.2¢ | $14K | Proven+$3.41 per $100 · 384 bets |
| lug0xe0db…f44e | No | 15,000 | 92.0¢ | $13.7K | Break-even+$0.56 per $100 · 4,496 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | No | 13,700 | 92.0¢ | $12.5K | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,059 bets |
| xuio0xe22a…540f | Yes | 147,453 | 7.2¢ | $12.5K | New20 settled bets |
| ClaudeIntern0x95b3…1df1 | No | 12,578 | 90.2¢ | $11.5K | Losing−$13.46 per $100 · 104 bets |
| 0xcb58…0160 | No | 12,000 | 88.2¢ | $11K | Break-even+$0.18 per $100 · 113 bets |
| woodlawncap0xe005…14fd | No | 12,000 | 91.6¢ | $11K | Proven+$4.14 per $100 · 233 bets |
| alfabetica0x116a…6226 | No | 11,112 | 91.0¢ | $10.2K | New0 settled bets |
| theta-thunberg0xb760…ccd7 | No | 10,929 | 89.6¢ | $10K | Proven+$6.21 per $100 · 1,086 bets |
| Paul9739730xa108…abd3 | No | 10,770 | 93.1¢ | $9.85K | Break-even−$0.13 per $100 · 1,137 bets |
| NotHarrisonHohman0xe72e…282d | No | 10,558 | 87.0¢ | $9.66K | New8 settled bets |
| stupid220x8afa…adb6 | No | 10,428 | 88.4¢ | $9.54K | Break-even−$0.83 per $100 · 918 bets |
| Vespuccii0x712f…9fe6 | No | 10,000 | 92.0¢ | $9.15K | Break-even+$0.73 per $100 · 238 bets |
| Outsid3rTrading0xf1ef…8cd6 | No | 10,000 | 92.0¢ | $9.15K | Break-even+$0.74 per $100 · 2,128 bets |
| Car0x7c3d…5c6b | No | 10,000 | 89.0¢ | $9.15K | Proven+$2.15 per $100 · 10,254 bets |
| oxbus0x6be0…9ac7 | No | 9,999 | 92.0¢ | $9.15K | Break-even+$0.05 per $100 · 2,322 bets |
| TheArtOfTACO0xe54f…94f0 | No | 9,500 | 88.5¢ | $8.69K | Proven+$5.47 per $100 · 211 bets |
| ApuStonks0x5bff…63e0 | No | 9,495 | 83.8¢ | $8.69K | Proven+$3.56 per $100 · 131 bets |
| bobo750080x6eea…cb72 | Yes | 96,728 | 17.7¢ | $8.22K | New2 settled bets |
| gamblito0x6452…30a1 | No | 8,460 | 89.1¢ | $7.74K | Losing−$6.12 per $100 · 391 bets |
| 0xcdc0…dcd8 | No | 8,000 | 88.6¢ | $7.32K | Positive+$1.49 per $100 · 406 bets |
| weaklei0x99dd…4303 | No | 8,000 | 92.2¢ | $7.32K | Break-even−$0.07 per $100 · 213 bets |
| Fraggy0xe505…ce50 | Yes | 84,014 | 15.1¢ | $7.14K | New6 settled bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 7,737 | 90.4¢ | $7.08K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,912 bets |
| iraa30xad60…97f4 | No | 7,700 | 90.3¢ | $7.05K | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 259 bets |
| Cal8000x05ed…bf70 | No | 6,950 | 93.3¢ | $6.36K | Positive+$1.39 per $100 · 1,246 bets |
| ChiCozCapital0xfbc4…201d | Yes | 70,000 | 11.4¢ | $5.95K | New23 settled bets |
| timetowander0x58b3…653c | Yes | 69,641 | 12.7¢ | $5.92K | Positive+$3.26 per $100 · 1,500 bets |
| cowcat0x38e5…95e7 | Yes | 53,982 | 17.3¢ | $4.59K | Break-even+$0.38 per $100 · 6,726 bets |
| 0x10b3…40d4 | Yes | 50,000 | 8.3¢ | $4.25K | Break-even+$0.15 per $100 · 678 bets |
| arvinlleva940x8788…0e05 | Yes | 43,937 | 14.6¢ | $3.73K | New2 settled bets |
| LFG240xd586…08e9 | Yes | 41,000 | 13.8¢ | $3.48K | Losing−$16.15 per $100 · 117 bets |
| 0xa0f2…1848 | Yes | 40,414 | 8.3¢ | $3.44K | Losing−$17.28 per $100 · 7,279 bets |
| NicolasBoy0x7cc9…6884 | Yes | 37,144 | 19.1¢ | $3.16K | New7 settled bets |
| Essence0x5c84…c9f6 | Yes | 35,988 | 10.9¢ | $3.06K | New9 settled bets |
| QQQ7770x7f2d…39a8 | Yes | 30,000 | 9.3¢ | $2.55K | New94 settled bets |
| su2810x9106…afcb | Yes | 29,999 | 8.0¢ | $2.55K | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 1,965 bets |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | Yes | 26,582 | 8.1¢ | $2.26K | Losing−$7.34 per $100 · 1,388 bets |
| debased0x24c8…23e1 | Yes | 26,041 | 8.5¢ | $2.21K | Positive+$1.37 per $100 · 7,227 bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 23,872 | 10.2¢ | $2.03K | Losing−$6.87 per $100 · 49,874+ bets · updating |
| 0x062f…823a | Yes | 21,411 | 17.3¢ | $1.82K | New12 settled bets |
| 0xc908…696e | Yes | 20,016 | 18.7¢ | $1.7K | New4 settled bets |
| psy9990x45db…4e81 | Yes | 19,473 | 10.1¢ | $1.66K | New0 settled bets |
| bigphillystyle0x0cef…45c7 | Yes | 18,145 | 8.3¢ | $1.54K | New0 settled bets |
| AnonymousUsername0x9703…69c2 | Yes | 16,196 | 20.2¢ | $1.38K | Losing−$1.33 per $100 · 16,224 bets |
| 0x7c39…f064 | Yes | 16,124 | 12.4¢ | $1.37K | New32 settled bets |
| 079800900x4d9f…5a60 | Yes | 15,977 | 12.5¢ | $1.36K | New0 settled bets |
| Hyperlong0x014c…820c | Yes | 15,964 | 12.1¢ | $1.36K | Break-even−$0.64 per $100 · 1,141 bets |
| sweetj0x39a5…87f2 | Yes | 15,319 | 12.3¢ | $1.3K | Break-even+$0.80 per $100 · 3,603 bets |
| resfeber0x814d…b842 | Yes | 14,600 | 12.5¢ | $1.24K | Losing−$2.54 per $100 · 2,420 bets |
| 0xcb01…7dfb | Yes | 13,866 | 7.6¢ | $1.18K | Proven+$2.02 per $100 · 6,515 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 13,256 | 13.6¢ | $1.13K | Proven+$3.50 per $100 · 13,216 bets |
| 0x3b84…c8de | Yes | 11,948 | 8.3¢ | $1.02K | New0 settled bets |
| SamCrosling0xf935…51ab | Yes | 11,250 | 8.3¢ | $956 | New16 settled bets |
| 0x2b8c…6c15 | Yes | 11,111 | 9.3¢ | $944 | New6 settled bets |
| DanaPlex0xb153…ba16 | Yes | 11,008 | 9.3¢ | $936 | — |
| Jgborn0xc1b7…e00b | Yes | 10,364 | 10.5¢ | $881 | New15 settled bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 10,270 | 12.4¢ | $873 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 192,903 bets |
| luckyshoe0xe828…5cea | Yes | 10,000 | 12.4¢ | $850 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 232 bets |
| VorpalQuark0x4bb2…a656 | Yes | 9,853 | 19.5¢ | $838 | Positive+$2.90 per $100 · 1,141 bets |
| kp123450xf0f7…8c0b | Yes | 9,800 | 15.8¢ | $833 | New16 settled bets |
| alexhamilton0xd1e8…27b1 | Yes | 9,653 | 18.7¢ | $820 | New3 settled bets |
| Maegor0x0a53…4e80 | Yes | 9,576 | 10.1¢ | $814 | New57 settled bets |
| 0xa42c…e313 | Yes | 9,370 | 21.0¢ | $796 | New28 settled bets |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | Yes | 9,102 | 11.3¢ | $774 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 22,911 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.