Democratic Party

Decided by

The market resolves according to the party that wins control of the US House in the 2026 midterm election.§1

No majority

If no party wins a majority of voting seats, control goes to the party of the first elected Speaker of the Congress after the 2026 midterms.§3

Runoff seats

Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result determines attribution of that seat.§6

Party switch

A member-elect who changes party or vacates a seat before Congress organizes is still attributed to the party under which they were elected.§8

Independent caucus

Independents who formally caucus with a party, or newly elected ones who announce that intent, are included in that party's count.§9

Counted

All 2026 House elections that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress.§5

Source

Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.§12

Closes

Nov 4, 2026 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• Democratic Party 90.5¢
• Republican Party 9.5¢

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.