Ken Paxton (R)

Decided by

The market resolves according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs.§1

Nominee replacement

If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the contract name is updated and the market resolves on the replacement nominee.§6

Split calls

If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate, the market resolves based on the official certification.§9

Independents excluded

Candidates running as independents are not covered by the "Democrat" or "Republican" options, whatever party affiliation they have.§4

Party nominee

A candidate represents a party when he or she is the nominee of that party.§2

Counted

The winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election; run-offs are included.§1

Source

The Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.§7

Closes

Nov 4, 2026 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• James Talarico (D) 62.5¢
• Ken Paxton (R) 36.5¢

These 2 outcomes add up to 99.0¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.