James Talarico (D)

Decided by

The market resolves according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs.§1

Replacement nominee

If a named candidate is replaced as their party's nominee before election day, the name is updated and the market resolves on the replacement nominee.§6

Three-source call

The market resolves once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.§8

No matching call

If all three sources have not called the race for the same candidate, the market resolves on the official certification.§9

Independents excluded

Candidates running as independents are not encompassed by the Democrat or Republican options, whatever party affiliation they may have.§4

Counted

The winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs.§1

Source

The resolution source is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.§7

Closes

Nov 4, 2026 · 04:59 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• James Talarico (D) 63.5¢
• Ken Paxton (R) 35.5¢

These 2 outcomes add up to 99.0¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.