Market · 2 of 2 outcomes
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 13:11 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2026 midterms · 692 events · $32.4M in play
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 24 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| wan1230xde7b…5f4b | No | 274,558 | 59.2¢ | $172K | Proven+$8.03 per $100 · 528 bets |
| botbot0x226b…cad6 | Yes | 237,373 | 36.7¢ | $89K | Proven+$8.16 per $100 · 1,124 bets |
| tmoneeey0xa974…ef79 | Yes | 220,846 | 40.2¢ | $82.8K | Break-even+$0.55 per $100 · 753 bets |
| 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e050xe234…304a | No | 70,021 | 56.1¢ | $43.8K | Positive+$1.66 per $100 · 636 bets |
| chuckrhoades0xcf82…8dd7 | Yes | 95,000 | 52.6¢ | $35.6K | New0 settled bets |
| tetrose0x7447…a16d | No | 51,290 | 63.3¢ | $32.1K | Positive+$3.08 per $100 · 772 bets |
| pup10x54b5…4b31 | No | 50,012 | 63.6¢ | $31.3K | Positive+$2.96 per $100 · 5,558 bets |
| Arbguy0x53e5…6177 | Yes | 73,696 | 45.5¢ | $27.6K | Proven+$3.06 per $100 · 1,106 bets |
| Wickier0x1cc1…b8df | No | 41,209 | 63.9¢ | $25.8K | Proven+$18.22 per $100 · 1,097 bets |
| 0x6764…49c4 | Yes | 68,188 | 38.3¢ | $25.6K | New22 settled bets |
| SaylorMoon0xecb1…5da3 | No | 35,992 | 64.1¢ | $22.5K | Positive+$1.32 per $100 · 2,899 bets |
| JJo0xc408…4675 | No | 25,000 | 64.6¢ | $15.6K | Positive+$1.02 per $100 · 1,924 bets |
| Vespuccii0x712f…9fe6 | No | 24,637 | 63.5¢ | $15.4K | Break-even+$0.73 per $100 · 238 bets |
| Vilgefortz0x3c91…9af7 | Yes | 41,000 | 47.5¢ | $15.4K | Proven+$4.21 per $100 · 360 bets |
| neutralwave230x5b63…11a4 | Yes | 34,704 | 35.2¢ | $13K | Losing−$2.72 per $100 · 78,097+ bets · updating |
| 0xc8b9…b836 | No | 20,000 | 46.7¢ | $12.5K | Proven+$18.90 per $100 · 507 bets |
| mr.ozi0x614d…1546 | No | 19,699 | 62.7¢ | $12.3K | Proven+$4.92 per $100 · 2,289 bets |
| supersmard0xe3f2…e1c1 | No | 17,499 | 62.8¢ | $10.9K | Proven+$18.23 per $100 · 164 bets |
| alextalley0x1a3f…6dea | Yes | 28,571 | 35.9¢ | $10.7K | New49 settled bets |
| pantomime0xd039…2532 | No | 16,000 | 63.0¢ | $10K | Proven+$2.11 per $100 · 3,792 bets |
| Tigerofthehood0x9c26…74bc | No | 15,859 | 64.7¢ | $9.91K | Positive+$1.01 per $100 · 237 bets |
| Parz1vaI0xb100…6461 | No | 14,432 | 64.0¢ | $9.02K | Proven+$3.49 per $100 · 6,934 bets |
| SitsToPee0x6d57…bfc5 | No | 13,821 | 61.8¢ | $8.64K | Break-even−$0.23 per $100 · 2,029 bets |
| pieped0xf440…b009 | No | 13,000 | 63.4¢ | $8.12K | Break-even−$0.12 per $100 · 179 bets |
| 0xa0f2…1848 | Yes | 21,080 | 46.4¢ | $7.9K | Losing−$17.35 per $100 · 7,305 bets |
| scottilicious0x000d…758e | No | 11,490 | 64.9¢ | $7.18K | Proven+$2.76 per $100 · 1,310 bets |
| jeb.0x968c…8b8a | Yes | 17,596 | 36.7¢ | $6.6K | New3 settled bets |
| BigRabbit0xeb22…808a | No | 10,000 | 47.0¢ | $6.25K | Positive+$4.46 per $100 · 2,227 bets |
| WongKimArk0x7bb2…682c | No | 10,000 | 60.0¢ | $6.25K | Positive+$3.29 per $100 · 449 bets |
| 0xb9d8…275a | No | 10,000 | 60.0¢ | $6.25K | New21 settled bets |
| 0x7726…4aee | No | 10,000 | 62.0¢ | $6.25K | Proven+$17.44 per $100 · 324 bets |
| Javier777Milei0x2e61…19bd | No | 9,911 | 54.0¢ | $6.19K | Positive+$1.85 per $100 · 844 bets |
| tNUb7u2zW8RRR32NqzjKv8Hws0x4992…00c8 | Yes | 16,361 | 57.9¢ | $6.14K | New16 settled bets |
| 0xff1e…5e2d | No | 9,586 | 62.0¢ | $5.99K | Break-even+$0.45 per $100 · 639 bets |
| carkiller5300xef2f…8b9c | Yes | 15,343 | 65.3¢ | $5.75K | New20 settled bets |
| 0x3783…f624 | Yes | 15,132 | 40.6¢ | $5.67K | New12 settled bets |
| qizhan0xac38…c04f | No | 9,049 | 64.8¢ | $5.66K | New60 settled bets |
| eightpenguins0x3c59…1766 | No | 8,888 | 60.0¢ | $5.55K | Proven+$14.44 per $100 · 681 bets |
| 0x253d…3307 | No | 8,850 | 62.0¢ | $5.53K | Positive+$1.06 per $100 · 612 bets |
| 0x5375…aeea | Yes | 14,261 | 58.4¢ | $5.35K | Losing−$5.49 per $100 · 8,519 bets |
| Thatboi0xe685…eb9d | Yes | 13,816 | 53.6¢ | $5.18K | New19 settled bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | No | 8,159 | 60.1¢ | $5.1K | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,060 bets |
| Breezy-Entrance0x5fc8…39ef | No | 8,000 | 63.1¢ | $5K | Break-even+$0.43 per $100 · 1,895 bets |
| .ethguy0x1e55…e3e2 | No | 7,937 | 63.9¢ | $4.96K | Proven+$3.76 per $100 · 549 bets |
| ClauseAI0x8aae…918c | Yes | 12,500 | 41.0¢ | $4.69K | New0 settled bets |
| untilquick-wittedsag0xf872…9b11 | Yes | 12,420 | 41.2¢ | $4.66K | New11 settled bets |
| Krang0xa577…91e3 | Yes | 12,013 | 35.9¢ | $4.5K | Positive+$9.00 per $100 · 152 bets |
| mombil0x68c2…1711 | No | 7,123 | 58.0¢ | $4.45K | Proven+$5.25 per $100 · 3,129 bets |
| Voland67770xc23e…6499 | No | 6,750 | 60.7¢ | $4.22K | New18 settled bets |
| Mecky0xa82b…5220 | No | 6,600 | 64.0¢ | $4.13K | Positive+$3.98 per $100 · 2,984 bets |
| tunatyler0xf1f9…1245 | No | 6,452 | 40.1¢ | $4.03K | Proven+$6.66 per $100 · 2,308 bets |
| ScottyNooo0xbacd…ab35 | No | 6,216 | 63.1¢ | $3.88K | Positive+$1.43 per $100 · 5,414 bets |
| pax0xbfee…7272 | Yes | 10,300 | 36.5¢ | $3.86K | New32 settled bets |
| purplegatto0x032e…2a9e | No | 6,152 | 55.4¢ | $3.84K | Losing−$7.02 per $100 · 15,941 bets |
| G.Hchen0xdb97…eee8 | No | 6,100 | 59.4¢ | $3.81K | Proven+$9.18 per $100 · 691 bets |
| 0x9a09…60eb | Yes | 9,623 | 37.3¢ | $3.61K | New19 settled bets |
| Snarfsnarfsnarf0x9536…7e50 | Yes | 9,116 | 46.8¢ | $3.42K | New3 settled bets |
| geoffmar0x469f…5de4 | Yes | 8,789 | 38.2¢ | $3.3K | New2 settled bets |
| moonlight20200x407d…1bae | No | 5,000 | 64.9¢ | $3.13K | Proven+$3.80 per $100 · 321 bets |
| Jellow20x6640…2202 | No | 5,000 | 49.0¢ | $3.13K | Proven+$3.91 per $100 · 575 bets |
| twinna0xa43d…00f4 | No | 5,000 | 50.7¢ | $3.13K | Proven+$12.80 per $100 · 245 bets |
| Tinto0x1849…eb1a | Yes | 8,051 | 63.0¢ | $3.02K | New11 settled bets |
| FastPaws0x0548…d852 | No | 4,761 | 64.8¢ | $2.98K | New39 settled bets |
| Eatpraylove0xc021…1fa8 | No | 4,673 | 40.8¢ | $2.92K | Proven+$2.20 per $100 · 1,792 bets |
| peterfromfamilyguy0x9352…2227 | No | 4,500 | 65.1¢ | $2.81K | Proven+$4.36 per $100 · 699 bets |
| Chungvicular0x41ea…7a3d | No | 4,393 | 47.1¢ | $2.75K | Proven+$6.94 per $100 · 188 bets |
| PetuniaPettigrew0xd987…ae37 | Yes | 7,105 | 41.0¢ | $2.66K | New9 settled bets |
| nnimrodd0x09bb…f8b1 | No | 4,173 | 53.2¢ | $2.61K | Losing−$3.50 per $100 · 496 bets |
| 111220x011f…1122 | Yes | 6,820 | 51.6¢ | $2.56K | Positive+$1.55 per $100 · 5,659 bets |
| D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC389350xd8d5…8935 | No | 4,000 | 57.4¢ | $2.5K | Positive+$1.48 per $100 · 3,061 bets |
| WeWook0x467f…c4ee | Yes | 6,231 | 34.9¢ | $2.34K | New4 settled bets |
| RR344KK0x52b9…df61 | No | 3,720 | 64.8¢ | $2.32K | New26 settled bets |
| SheepToken0xff72…cdaa | No | 3,712 | 55.7¢ | $2.32K | Break-even+$0.41 per $100 · 591 bets |
| gopfan20xf2f6…5817 | No | 3,700 | 39.2¢ | $2.31K | Proven+$5.39 per $100 · 2,338 bets |
| mountaindewd0x944e…8c94 | No | 3,654 | 45.6¢ | $2.28K | Proven+$9.45 per $100 · 749 bets |
| HowBoutThemCowboys0xe091…9549 | Yes | 6,004 | 38.2¢ | $2.25K | New30 settled bets |
| 0xcb14…bd17 | Yes | 6,000 | 51.1¢ | $2.25K | Break-even−$0.06 per $100 · 916 bets |
| mrworldwide0x98d0…f14a | No | 3,600 | 61.3¢ | $2.25K | Proven+$8.95 per $100 · 1,842 bets |
| thanks4playing0xaa6e…04fe | Yes | 5,723 | 48.3¢ | $2.15K | New9 settled bets |
| Sayl7Seas0x77a6…3606 | Yes | 5,668 | 50.3¢ | $2.13K | New20 settled bets |
| 0x8d18…2e86 | Yes | 5,524 | 41.5¢ | $2.07K | New3 settled bets |
| Obilic0x1d7f…a878 | Yes | 5,489 | 36.6¢ | $2.06K | Break-even+$0.42 per $100 · 363 bets |
| Poopsie0xac34…2c89 | Yes | 5,128 | 40.0¢ | $1.92K | New21 settled bets |
| GUINESS1230x2f26…0d8f | Yes | 5,095 | 40.3¢ | $1.91K | Losing−$2.11 per $100 · 28,111 bets |
| 0xcbdf…6a49 | Yes | 4,948 | 39.4¢ | $1.86K | New29 settled bets |
| RFK-Jr0x8e41…5932 | Yes | 4,584 | 46.0¢ | $1.72K | Losing−$20.49 per $100 · 197 bets |
| 0x16bb…8492 | Yes | 4,201 | 39.7¢ | $1.58K | Losing−$1.86 per $100 · 1,634 bets |
| DirkDiggler670xaab9…a08d | Yes | 3,666 | 19.0¢ | $1.37K | Proven+$5.81 per $100 · 1,116 bets |
| Folletin0x08c8…1da2 | Yes | 3,569 | 49.8¢ | $1.34K | Proven+$5.44 per $100 · 712 bets |
| 8811120xd426…334a | Yes | 3,547 | 55.6¢ | $1.33K | Proven+$15.37 per $100 · 1,938 bets |
| nigiri990xdc41…dd7e | Yes | 3,490 | 42.2¢ | $1.31K | Losing−$2.89 per $100 · 32,441 bets |
| HorribleWork0x7804…7025 | Yes | 3,382 | 40.9¢ | $1.27K | Losing−$1.90 per $100 · 1,375 bets |
| 0x39aa…583c | Yes | 3,268 | 33.2¢ | $1.23K | Break-even+$0.70 per $100 · 22,696 bets |
| miaogongzhu0xce53…d32d | Yes | 3,214 | 52.6¢ | $1.21K | New22 settled bets |
| BP20250x049a…b22a | Yes | 3,000 | 45.5¢ | $1.12K | Proven+$6.76 per $100 · 257 bets |
| paultudor0x9e92…6929 | Yes | 2,984 | 34.9¢ | $1.12K | New37 settled bets |
| fluxzy0xafbe…8715 | Yes | 2,890 | 37.8¢ | $1.08K | New60 settled bets |
| DonkDaWarrior0xa492…d2fd | Yes | 2,800 | 38.9¢ | $1.05K | — |
| Andylow50xf96d…214b | Yes | 2,778 | 36.9¢ | $1.04K | New1 settled bet |
| Spade750x4d55…5ea3 | Yes | 2,703 | 37.9¢ | $1.01K | New92 settled bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.