Market · 4 of 5 outcomes
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 09:36 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2026 midterms · 670 events · $32.3M in play
Adding up this event's outcomes gives Democrats a chance of the Senate. The Senate market itself says 63.5%.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 2 accounts that hold just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
5 proven traders are on Yes, 7 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProfessionalPunter0x22e4…ef1c | No | 50,000 | 99.0¢ | $49.6K | Proven+$4.52 per $100 · 1,293 bets |
| 0x39aa…583c | No | 22,875 | 99.2¢ | $22.7K | Break-even |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| chongchongpanda0x121f…15c1 | No | 14,365 | 97.0¢ | $14.2K | Break-even+$0.09 per $100 · 126 bets |
| SlavaUkraini0xe899…0899 | No | 7,019 | 99.0¢ | $6.96K | Proven+$4.28 per $100 · 296 bets |
| Eatpraylove0xc021…1fa8 | No | 3,677 | 98.4¢ | $3.65K | Proven+$2.20 per $100 · 1,792 bets |
| BreakTheBank0xf031…c80c | Yes | 428,722 | 0.8¢ | $3.64K | Proven+$4.09 per $100 · 1,073 bets |
| Hyperlong0x014c…820c | No | 2,979 | 98.5¢ | $2.95K | Break-even−$0.64 per $100 · 1,141 bets |
| Humble0xb664…8669 | Yes | 200,000 | 1.1¢ | $1.7K | New72 settled bets |
| 111220x011f…1122 | Yes | 191,164 | 7.8¢ | $1.62K | Positive+$1.55 per $100 · 5,659 bets |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 1,573 | 99.0¢ | $1.56K | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 1,448 | 97.7¢ | $1.44K | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| debased0x24c8…23e1 | No | 1,111 | 98.7¢ | $1.1K | Positive+$1.37 per $100 · 7,227 bets |
| Felik0x4e98…c2ea | Yes | 122,401 | 1.0¢ | $1.04K | New0 settled bets |
| 0x16cb…2704 | No | 1,000 | 96.7¢ | $992 | Proven+$2.02 per $100 · 7,120 bets |
| kinderSman0xa6d9…fd2f | No | 1,000 | 98.6¢ | $991 | Proven+$2.08 per $100 · 842 bets |
| choyou820x7765…ebf4 | Yes | 95,088 | 0.8¢ | $808 | New0 settled bets |
| ClaudeIntern0x95b3…1df1 | No | 800 | 99.0¢ | $793 | Losing−$13.46 per $100 · 104 bets |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | No | 794 | 96.3¢ | $787 | Proven+$3.51 per $100 · 13,256 bets |
| supersmard0xe3f2…e1c1 | Yes | 91,834 | 1.5¢ | $781 | Proven+$18.23 per $100 · 164 bets |
| tkdnbb0xab56…86d2 | Yes | 79,029 | 1.6¢ | $672 | New1 settled bet |
| WhoseHouseRamsHouse0x3825…04e8 | No | 592 | 99.1¢ | $587 | Losing−$2.94 per $100 · 1,162 bets |
| Terrence19920xc094…c8d4 | No | 554 | 98.8¢ | $549 | Losing−$4.45 per $100 · 2,984 bets |
| vadermike0x9e68…d03f | Yes | 61,445 | 3.5¢ | $522 | New7 settled bets |
| timetowander0x58b3…653c | Yes | 59,544 | 14.5¢ | $506 | Positive+$3.07 per $100 · 1,514 bets |
| 0x151a…0ece | No | 500 | 98.0¢ | $496 | Break-even+$0.97 per $100 · 348 bets |
| TimeTraveler0x51fd…4272 | Yes | 57,738 | 0.8¢ | $491 | Positive+$6.43 per $100 · 7,366 bets |
| ChoYou0x1bc9…918e | Yes | 51,708 | 1.0¢ | $440 | New2 settled bets |
| FaucetWiki0x8aac…0e7a | No | 399 | 98.8¢ | $396 | Losing−$4.58 per $100 · 3,494 bets |
| 0x66e7…8bcd | No | 325 | 97.9¢ | $322 | Break-even+$0.87 per $100 · 22,911 bets |
| 0x4e25…d7a7 | No | 304 | 99.2¢ | $301 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 10,029 bets |
| defi-vitya0xe7af…1e9f | No | 304 | 98.0¢ | $301 | — |
| kokelin0x2334…cd00 | No | 303 | 98.9¢ | $301 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 2,021 bets |
| allenhall0xa872…f2f7 | Yes | 26,189 | 1.0¢ | $223 | New4 settled bets |
| huiJGFJ0xda2d…81e6 | No | 200 | 99.1¢ | $198 | — |
| khgftyi0xc47b…0ade | No | 200 | 99.0¢ | $198 | — |
| bfdy5e6ytfj0x4624…9659 | No | 182 | 98.9¢ | $180 | New26 settled bets |
| gandalf0x21f9…ed12 | Yes | 20,000 | 4.0¢ | $170 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 1,386 bets |
| Jeremy.klynsmith0x8584…05a2 | Yes | 19,811 | 1.0¢ | $168 | — |
| stonghall0xaead…840d | Yes | 18,962 | 1.0¢ | $161 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 158 | 99.1¢ | $156 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Blamates0x55c7…febf | Yes | 16,644 | 1.1¢ | $141 | New78 settled bets |
| woniu60x7307…35cb | No | 135 | 98.8¢ | $134 | New34 settled bets |
| daniel1221340x09fe…76ee | No | 135 | 99.4¢ | $134 | Break-even−$0.38 per $100 · 30,000+ bets · updating |
| 0xdb63…73d2 | No | 123 | 99.2¢ | $122 | — |
| Derrick2606840x66ef…f738 | Yes | 14,368 | 1.5¢ | $122 | Losing−$9.33 per $100 · 387 bets |
| 0x502a…e7be | No | 120 | 99.2¢ | $119 | New3 settled bets |
| 0x8a89…fdac | No | 120 | 99.2¢ | $119 | — |
| 0x4628…c1ec | No | 118 | 99.2¢ | $117 | New3 settled bets |
| 0x4a11…342c | No | 117 | 99.2¢ | $116 | New3 settled bets |
| 0xb0aa…34b8 | No | 117 | 99.2¢ | $116 | — |
| 0x540a…7df6 | No | 116 | 99.2¢ | $115 | New15 settled bets |
| 0x1b75…1d32 | No | 116 | 99.1¢ | $115 | New15 settled bets |
| 0xc634…71c4 | No | 116 | 99.2¢ | $115 | — |
| 0x3938…7206 | No | 116 | 99.2¢ | $115 | New14 settled bets |
| 0x4787…3692 | No | 115 | 99.2¢ | $114 | New15 settled bets |
| 0xa3cf…94de | No | 112 | 99.1¢ | $111 | — |
| 0xe920…2127 | No | 110 | 99.1¢ | $109 | — |
| 0x1a95…599a | No | 110 | 99.1¢ | $109 | New18 settled bets |
| asd44dd0xd3e4…b38b | No | 104 | 96.0¢ | $103 | — |
| kijek2399ds0xb0ea…7d00 | No | 102 | 96.0¢ | $101 | — |
| mysteryenemy0xc484…2655 | No | 101 | 99.0¢ | $100 | — |
| KentosPet0x76c5…fe58 | No | 100 | 98.5¢ | $99 | Break-even+$0.66 per $100 · 143 bets |
| bilgedefn0xf3e5…5e3f | No | 100 | 99.4¢ | $99 | — |
| Maccy0x1cb8…8d6d | Yes | 11,216 | 1.8¢ | $95 | New1 settled bet |
| Railcool0x94c4…43ca | Yes | 11,041 | 2.0¢ | $94 | Proven+$13.67 per $100 · 222 bets |
| 0x491a…2a04 | Yes | 10,562 | 1.1¢ | $90 | New1 settled bet |
| 0xcb01…7dfb | Yes | 10,082 | 0.7¢ | $86 | Proven+$2.02 per $100 · 6,534 bets |
| Gandalf7070x792d…c475 | Yes | 10,050 | 2.1¢ | $85 | Losing−$19.95 per $100 · 188 bets |
| mpilb0x3bc4…41e4 | Yes | 9,999 | 1.7¢ | $85 | New13 settled bets |
| pkddsk1230x37d1…4523 | No | 82 | 96.0¢ | $82 | New86 settled bets |
| 0x9c3d…461c | Yes | 9,223 | 1.2¢ | $78 | — |
| rustin1230x8c21…adaf | Yes | 9,000 | 0.6¢ | $77 | — |
| p0rkbun0xc577…34e2 | Yes | 8,703 | 1.1¢ | $74 | — |
| luckymofer0x1ee1…c056 | Yes | 8,427 | 0.9¢ | $72 | New2 settled bets |
| Nobody230410x45cc…6400 | Yes | 8,419 | 1.6¢ | $72 | Break-even+$0.54 per $100 · 2,121 bets |
| JohnDoe190xbbab…5b36 | Yes | 8,333 | 1.2¢ | $71 | — |
| MoonSooLove0x965f…ecf7 | Yes | 8,276 | 0.9¢ | $70 | — |
| elm5730x04cc…bc81 | No | 70 | 97.8¢ | $69 | — |
| AnonymousUsername0x9703…69c2 | Yes | 7,821 | 20.1¢ | $66 | Losing−$1.35 per $100 · 16,297 bets |
| Yoon10x5f21…805e | Yes | 5,911 | 1.0¢ | $50 | Losing−$14.31 per $100 · 109 bets |
| 0x7e92…9670 | Yes | 5,859 | 0.9¢ | $50 | New35 settled bets |
| angeltrader0xa4f4…d132 | Yes | 5,724 | 0.9¢ | $49 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 5,221 | 17.4¢ | $44 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,406 bets |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | Yes | 5,158 | 20.0¢ | $44 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,469 bets |
| buyrightbake0x57cd…82ac | Yes | 5,150 | 2.0¢ | $44 | Proven+$3.56 per $100 · 653 bets |
| mastm0x0530…e1e8 | Yes | 4,775 | 1.1¢ | $41 | New2 settled bets |
| PakaPoo0xba62…86a5 | Yes | 4,385 | 2.4¢ | $37 | — |
| EEbets0xe4ae…93ec | Yes | 4,200 | 0.6¢ | $36 | — |
| 0xe4ec…d536 | Yes | 4,170 | 2.6¢ | $35 | — |
| FrankyFourFingers0xcdbf…1926 | Yes | 4,000 | 1.8¢ | $34 | — |
| Bongobuena0x3da2…cfaa | Yes | 3,500 | 2.1¢ | $30 | New5 settled bets |
| wing12340x02ae…bad5 | Yes | 3,367 | 1.2¢ | $29 | Losing−$12.89 per $100 · 792 bets |
| MoffGonsular0x183d…45cb | Yes | 3,125 | 0.8¢ | $27 | New1 settled bet |
| Skitseblok0xf6f1…0095 | Yes | 3,079 | 1.4¢ | $26 | — |
| labros0xa35c…f27e | Yes | 2,983 | 1.1¢ | $25 | — |
| Tetamerica0x0576…b12e | Yes | 2,876 | 0.7¢ | $24 | — |
| OperFAQ0x2dc1…30f8 | Yes | 2,873 | 1.8¢ | $24 | New10 settled bets |
2 accounts bet both sides equally · 36K shares each side · Show
|