Market · 9 of 12 outcomes
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Naftali Bennett become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 07:33 UTC. Not financial advice.
These 12 outcomes add up to 111.9¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 20 | 98.0¢ | $19 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,334 bets |
| 2B9S0x8765…ed81 | Yes | 150 | 0.5¢ | $5 | Positive+$6.99 per $100 · 29,969+ bets · updating |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 71 | 1.3¢ | $2 | Losing−$2.70 per $100 · 123,093 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | Yes | 30 | 0.6¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| Snoorrason0x805a…0635 | Yes | 20 | 0.7¢ | $1 | Positive+$2.75 per $100 · 6,230 bets |
| 0x9b12…c2d5 | No | 1 | 99.5¢ | $1 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 663 events · $32.3M in play
Exactly one of this event's 12 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.