Market · 5 of 12 outcomes
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 21:37 UTC. Not financial advice.
These 12 outcomes add up to 110.1¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| paddaa0x60a9…5a71 | No | 96 | 91.1¢ | $90 | Proven+$5.20 per $100 · 2,221 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 27 | 91.7¢ | $25 | Break-even |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 20 | 96.0¢ | $19 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 192,903 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 276 | 7.7¢ | $18 | Losing−$4.43 per $100 · 82,257+ bets · updating |
| 0opj4kuu4xb20x3500…07f0 | No | 6 | 95.6¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x8c94…2e06 | Yes | 71 | 8.1¢ | $5 | — |
US 2026 midterms · 615 events · $32M in play
Exactly one of this event's 12 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.