Market · 6 of 12 outcomes
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 22:43 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
0 proven traders are on Yes, 1 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| paddaa0x60a9…5a71 | No | 96 | 91.1¢ | $89 | Proven+$5.20 per $100 · 2,221 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 27 | 91.7¢ | $25 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 20 | 96.0¢ | $19 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 192,971 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 276 | 7.7¢ | $18 | Losing−$2.85 per $100 · 108,352+ bets · updating |
| 0opj4kuu4xb20x3500…07f0 | No | 6 | 95.6¢ | $6 | — |
| 0x8c94…2e06 | Yes | 71 | 8.1¢ | $5 | — |
| 0x73e8…db86 | Yes | 60 | 16.0¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x9b12…c2d5 | No | 1 | 97.1¢ | $0 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | Yes | 2 | 3.0¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| Numitus19940xa815…9cbe | Yes | 1 | 8.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$9.80 per $100 · 16,815 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 0 | 97.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$16.42 per $100 · 48,207+ bets · updating |
| luciebot0x17dd…944c | Yes | 0 | 2.4¢ | $0 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 0 | 5.9¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 126,571+ bets · updating |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
US 2026 midterms · 619 events · $32.1M in play
Exactly one of this event's 12 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.