Market · 15 of 19 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 13, 2026, 14:56 UTC. Not financial advice.
7 more outcomes in this event.
These 19 outcomes add up to 101.8¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
of the biggest Yes money sits with 1 account that holds just as much No. They keep the market running rather than pick a side, so we set them aside. Below is the money that's actually betting.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bipbipbop0xc4d5…87cf | No | 457 | 99.1¢ | $456 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 6,869 bets |
| raprapxiha0x0e68…d784 | No | 125 | 99.8¢ | $125 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| skold0r0xe089…ad3a |
| Yes |
| 11,388 |
| 0.7¢ |
| $28 |
| — |
| Elonurmom0x0f7f…6450 | Yes | 5,405 | 3.9¢ | $14 | — |
| LordYeah0xfd07…6bb7 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.1¢ | $13 | — |
| ihrekunst0xc5e8…8354 | Yes | 4,934 | 0.3¢ | $12 | — |
1 account bets both sides equally · 300 shares each side · Show
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Elon Musk tweet volume · 92 overlapping windows · 11 events · $896K in play
Exactly one of this event's 19 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.