Market · 9 of 22 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 12:15 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x3256…c1db | No | 499 | 96.0¢ | $486 | — |
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 9,946 | 4.2¢ | $254 | Losing−$1.11 per $100 · 2,223 bets |
| Elonurmom0x0f7f…6450 | Yes | 5,405 | 3.9¢ | $138 | — |
| 0x2ef2…7f72 | Yes | 5,000 | 2.0¢ | $127 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 120 | 99.7¢ | $117 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,452 bets |
| LinaBell🦊0x8eab…a56d | Yes | 4,000 | 2.0¢ | $102 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 4,037 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
10 more outcomes in this event.
These 22 outcomes add up to 103.0¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 90 overlapping windows · 9 events · $718K in play
Exactly one of this event's 22 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.