480-499

Decided by

The market resolves by the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk) posts on X in the stated window.§1

Replies

Replies do not count, but replies on the main feed as shown in the example link are counted by the tracker.§3

Deleted posts

Deleted posts count if they remain available long enough for the tracker to capture them (~5 minutes).§4

Community reposts

Community reposts not counted by the tracker do not count toward the total.§5

Tracker failure

If the tracker does not update correctly per the rules, X may be used as a secondary resolution source.§8

Counted

Only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts count.§2

Source

The 'Post Counter' figure for posts at https://xtracker.polymarket.com.§6

Closes

Oct 13, 2026 · 16:00 UTC

Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.

• 340-359 63.6¢
• 360-379 23.5¢
• 320-339 8.3¢
• 380-399 2.9¢
• 400-419 0.5¢
• 420-439 0.3¢
• 440-459 0.2¢
• 300-319 0.1¢
• 460-479 0.1¢
• 480-499 0.1¢
• 500+ 0.1¢

How these markets fit together

Exactly one of this event's 11 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to 99.3¢ right now.

Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.