Market · 9 of 10 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 18:32 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| carboyant0xe6c6…77b7 | No | 1,921 | 99.8¢ | $1.92K | — |
| momo-09160x36a9…c1d3 | No | 775 | 99.9¢ | $775 | — |
| TP19950xc575…38fd | No | 200 | 99.0¢ | $200 | — |
| gggtdvhvh0x266d…77cd | No | 51 | 99.6¢ | $51 | — |
| cryingbabydicer870x5e8e…8212 | No | 50 | 97.6¢ | $50 | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 27,486 bets |
| HKYVBEUPXJ0x78c3…bd9a | No | 42 | 99.9¢ | $42 | — |
| iliabouchouev0x95dc…4b45 | No | 40 | 99.9¢ | $40 | Break-even+$0.17 per $100 · 16,947 bets |
| ksagfhda30x8981…72aa | No | 37 | 99.5¢ | $37 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 36 | 98.7¢ | $36 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| 0x16b3…780e | No | 34 | 99.5¢ | $34 | — |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | No | 30 | 98.4¢ | $30 | Break-even−$0.81 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| 0xa091…5765 | No | 26 | 99.5¢ | $26 | — |
| 0x7120…5252 | No | 23 | 99.6¢ | $23 | — |
| 0x239c…2852 | No | 21 | 99.5¢ | $21 | — |
| bahn-cuon-baby0x5cdc…1f6b | No | 21 | 97.1¢ | $21 | — |
| exponentially0xa2d7…e3b7 | No | 18 | 93.7¢ | $18 | — |
| 0xd0b8…e9e2 | No | 17 | 99.5¢ | $17 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 16 | 99.5¢ | $16 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,955 bets |
| 0x8cac…f1cb | No | 12 | 99.7¢ | $12 | — |
| 0xca13…3ef9 | No | 11 | 99.5¢ | $11 | — |
| CaprioDiLeo0x2eb6…3e31 | No | 11 | 99.3¢ | $11 | — |
| 0x7995…9e64 | No | 10 | 99.6¢ | $10 | — |
| LazyJohnX0x2f85…05ff | No | 10 | 99.5¢ | $10 | — |
| baikong0xe19a…a07f | No | 10 | 98.1¢ | $10 | — |
| 0x7500…567f | Yes | 11,418 | 1.5¢ | $6 | Positive+$6.73 per $100 · 1,735 bets |
| FGH5450x12df…a21b | No | 5 | 97.6¢ | $5 | — |
| uo99980x0b05…8983 | No | 5 | 96.9¢ | $5 | — |
| RT4650x2479…deed | No | 5 | 97.5¢ | $5 | — |
| GHF5Y0x2c66…40a1 | No | 5 | 98.4¢ | $5 | — |
| wxcong0x38e8…db25 | No | 5 | 96.9¢ | $5 | — |
| vip999990x3b42…229e | No | 5 | 96.9¢ | $5 | — |
| HJBVVV60x457c…5e89 | No | 5 | 98.2¢ | $5 | — |
| FGHV50x4889…439f | No | 5 | 98.4¢ | $5 | — |
| GBVT430x51fb…7950 | No | 5 | 98.4¢ | $5 | — |
| RTGFH54650x5a7a…95ee | No | 5 | 98.2¢ | $5 | — |
| GBVT43TY0x5da5…56ac | No | 5 | 98.4¢ | $5 | — |
| WanderingPanda0x74ff…be5b | No | 5 | 98.7¢ | $5 | — |
| HGFRT4650x9812…d115 | No | 5 | 98.2¢ | $5 | — |
| DVGRT4650x9eb5…90e5 | No | 5 | 97.5¢ | $5 | — |
| 653RT4650xa0df…b071 | No | 5 | 97.5¢ | $5 | — |
| DFG45560xcf09…cd17 | No | 5 | 97.5¢ | $5 | — |
| 34RT4650xee02…fbe3 | No | 5 | 98.1¢ | $5 | — |
| RT4FGH650xf391…8307 | No | 5 | 98.3¢ | $5 | — |
| GBVTD4550xfbaa…1869 | No | 5 | 98.4¢ | $5 | — |
| ihrekunst0xc5e8…8354 | Yes | 9,000 | 0.3¢ | $4 | — |
| wakuwaku30x7db5…cf18 | Yes | 5,874 | 0.2¢ | $3 | — |
| Micheletiberio0xdced…34d0 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.1¢ | $3 | — |
| Lijiang110x6cca…65ca | No | 2 | 99.3¢ | $2 | — |
| ChunkyMonky0x8f66…b986 | Yes | 4,382 | 1.1¢ | $2 | — |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 4,104 | 3.5¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 7,275 bets |
| LinaBell🦊0x8eab…a56d | Yes | 4,000 | 2.0¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 4,037 bets |
| b3t4t35t0xab18…467d | Yes | 3,950 | 0.3¢ | $2 | — |
| skold0r0xe089…ad3a | Yes | 3,657 | 1.2¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xcd0f…2154 | No | 2 | 98.1¢ | $2 | — |
| OsvaldoMarianao270xf939…43e1 | Yes | 3,066 | 1.7¢ | $2 | — |
| Sugarina0x8288…5519 | Yes | 3,000 | 3.8¢ | $2 | — |
| Poiuztrewq0x6df7…afb0 | Yes | 3,000 | 3.3¢ | $1 | Losing−$6.67 per $100 · 2,990 bets |
| InsideR50x17f1…0528 | Yes | 3,000 | 0.5¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x9e3e…f882 | Yes | 2,625 | 2.9¢ | $1 | Losing−$9.60 per $100 · 56,831+ bets · updating |
| 0x05b2…c70d | No | 1 | 100.3¢ | $1 | — |
| ganstta0xb049…e8d6 | No | 1 | 95.1¢ | $1 | — |
| orifcontex0xa002…e840 | Yes | 2,100 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| LordYeah0xfd07…6bb7 | Yes | 2,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | — |
| cool.guide0x0e70…bf72 | Yes | 1,955 | 2.1¢ | $1 | — |
| Rizh0x9255…6e3b | Yes | 1,906 | 2.1¢ | $1 | — |
| MilkTeaa0xd3ce…b432 | Yes | 1,843 | 3.6¢ | $1 | — |
| ComradeCat0x60ec…8d4c | Yes | 1,249 | 8.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xec35…259d | Yes | 1,181 | 1.1¢ | $1 | — |
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 1,041 | 3.7¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.11 per $100 · 2,223 bets |
| norealtime0x56c2…6219 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$11.38 per $100 · 9,404 bets |
| Cmp-Gamble-Trash0xf37b…4eda | Yes | 975 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 971 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.67 per $100 · 127,902 bets |
| Mei-ji0x2924…dcde | Yes | 969 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 876 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 194,223 bets |
| Bigggggggg0x511f…cbe1 | Yes | 808 | 3.8¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.03 per $100 · 18,903 bets |
| Ruiziness0x306d…7a38 | Yes | 800 | 1.6¢ | $0 | — |
| MailAJ-Long-Term0xda4d…c8ee | Yes | 800 | 0.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Kaiji1230xe5bd…339a | Yes | 763 | 2.2¢ | $0 | — |
| polenk0x12e0…d6f8 | Yes | 720 | 5.2¢ | $0 | — |
| exp7incher0x29b5…a992 | Yes | 700 | 5.0¢ | $0 | — |
| Ecnanif0x2a79…e2af | Yes | 700 | 3.7¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x544e…86dc | Yes | 600 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| ElonJail0xb831…892b | Yes | 583 | 1.2¢ | $0 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 549 | 1.4¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.57 per $100 · 124,099+ bets · updating |
| kegeI0xbdca…bada | Yes | 503 | 10.0¢ | $0 | — |
| JoyL0x0862…9a02 | Yes | 500 | 0.4¢ | $0 | — |
| sjoerdvdmack0xe53d…146c | Yes | 406 | 2.7¢ | $0 | — |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | Yes | 400 | 1.4¢ | $0 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 8,509 bets |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 369 | 0.1¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 69,942+ bets · updating |
| mmmm123450xfa76…897e | Yes | 353 | 1.4¢ | $0 | — |
| Romeo0050x146d…17c7 | Yes | 300 | 2.4¢ | $0 | — |
| rocky420060x85d5…bbf0 | Yes | 300 | 2.3¢ | $0 | — |
| Destim0x9372…b267 | Yes | 250 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| manochartino0xc20e…0a5e | Yes | 236 | 0.3¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.48 per $100 · 1,228 bets |
| InfiniiteHorizon0x0431…1af9 | Yes | 210 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| CrysttalCasscade0x0d3d…1880 | Yes | 210 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| AzuureSerenity0x20ed…223e | Yes | 210 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| edgewarehouse0x7eeb…b6bd | Yes | 59 | 3.6¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 91 overlapping windows · 10 events · $720K in play
Exactly one of this event's 10 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.