Market · 7 of 11 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 04:56 UTC. Not financial advice.
These 11 outcomes add up to 104.0¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| upont0xaac2…e8ce | No | 2,427 | 99.6¢ | $2.42K | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 1,393 bets |
| bipbipbop0xc4d5…87cf | No | 504 | 98.8¢ | $502 | Break-even+$0.77 per $100 · 6,842 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 263 | 99.4¢ | $262 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,521 bets |
| skold0r0xe089…ad3a | Yes | 25,309 | 2.1¢ | $114 | — |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | No | 80 | 98.2¢ | $80 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 18,243 bets |
| liq20x3423…fe57 | No | 75 | 99.6¢ | $75 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 90 overlapping windows · 9 events · $718K in play
Exactly one of this event's 11 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.