Market · 8 of 11 outcomes
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 15:20 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| upont0xaac2…e8ce | No | 7,051 | 99.7¢ | $7.04K | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 1,405 bets |
| bipbipbop0xc4d5…87cf | No | 504 | 98.8¢ | $504 | Break-even+$0.77 per $100 · 6,848 bets |
| momo-09160x36a9…c1d3 | No | 300 | 99.9¢ | $300 | — |
| GingerMcKenna0x671a…2f1e | No | 80 | 98.2¢ | $80 | Break-even−$0.81 per $100 · 18,336 bets |
| cryingbabydicer870x5e8e…8212 | No | 64 | 96.6¢ | $64 | Break-even+$0.23 per $100 · 27,486 bets |
| miilong90xd440…166e | No | 45 | 99.4¢ | $45 | — |
| exponentially0xa2d7…e3b7 | No | 41 | 93.8¢ | $41 | — |
| iliabouchouev0x95dc…4b45 | No | 40 | 99.9¢ | $40 | Break-even+$0.17 per $100 · 16,947 bets |
| fjy70xaaae…30aa | No | 39 | 99.4¢ | $39 | — |
| skold0r0xe089…ad3a | Yes | 25,309 | 2.1¢ | $38 | — |
| sasw20x596d…ca17 | No | 35 | 99.7¢ | $35 | — |
| 0x27ad…b0ae | No | 28 | 99.4¢ | $28 | — |
| 0x4236…e5d3 | No | 26 | 99.7¢ | $25 | — |
| 0xab0e…ecb7 | No | 25 | 99.6¢ | $25 | — |
| black45620x9242…a140 | No | 25 | 98.4¢ | $25 | — |
| 0x36f3…4ae2 | No | 22 | 99.8¢ | $22 | — |
| 0x182e…28ff | No | 21 | 99.4¢ | $21 | Break-even+$0.57 per $100 · 189 bets |
| bahn-cuon-baby0x5cdc…1f6b | No | 21 | 97.1¢ | $21 | — |
| 0xaac7…7673 | No | 18 | 99.6¢ | $18 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | No | 14 | 99.2¢ | $14 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,945 bets |
| LinaBell🦊0x8eab…a56d | Yes | 8,617 | 0.9¢ | $13 | Break-even+$0.75 per $100 · 4,037 bets |
| bvb10x7ca6…639e | No | 11 | 97.9¢ | $11 | — |
| 0xb85d…43e4 | No | 10 | 99.8¢ | $10 | — |
| baikong0xe19a…a07f | No | 10 | 97.9¢ | $10 | — |
| tsklee0x8cef…6b6d | No | 8 | 99.8¢ | $8 | — |
| Bitgod0x1e1a…7690 | Yes | 5,135 | 3.5¢ | $8 | Positive+$1.36 per $100 · 7,275 bets |
| ihrekunst0xc5e8…8354 | Yes | 4,300 | 0.2¢ | $6 | — |
| Laohan-hunk0x58cf…8a72 | No | 6 | 97.5¢ | $6 | — |
| Hi8880xde1c…4658 | No | 5 | 97.9¢ | $5 | — |
| Poiuztrewq0x6df7…afb0 | Yes | 3,326 | 3.3¢ | $5 | Losing−$6.67 per $100 · 2,990 bets |
| 0xcd0f…2154 | No | 5 | 94.2¢ | $5 | — |
| ChunkyMonky0x8f66…b986 | Yes | 3,153 | 1.7¢ | $5 | — |
| smalltimezzz0x590e…e43d | Yes | 3,070 | 6.1¢ | $5 | Losing−$1.11 per $100 · 2,223 bets |
| Sugarina0x8288…5519 | Yes | 3,000 | 3.8¢ | $5 | — |
| WanderingPanda0x74ff…be5b | No | 4 | 94.2¢ | $4 | — |
| OsvaldoMarianao270xf939…43e1 | Yes | 2,700 | 3.8¢ | $4 | — |
| orifcontex0xa002…e840 | Yes | 2,600 | 0.1¢ | $4 | — |
| b3t4t35t0xab18…467d | Yes | 2,530 | 0.5¢ | $4 | — |
| MilkTeaa0xd3ce…b432 | Yes | 2,457 | 3.6¢ | $4 | — |
| wakuwaku30x7db5…cf18 | Yes | 2,201 | 0.5¢ | $3 | — |
| InsideR50x17f1…0528 | Yes | 2,000 | 1.0¢ | $3 | — |
| cool.guide0x0e70…bf72 | Yes | 2,000 | 2.1¢ | $3 | — |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb90x6891…6bb9 | No | 3 | 99.1¢ | $3 | — |
| Kalkay110x6a1b…fbbd | Yes | 1,500 | 0.3¢ | $2 | — |
| ElonJail0xb831…892b | Yes | 1,400 | 2.3¢ | $2 | — |
| 0xf825…2e2b | Yes | 1,314 | 0.3¢ | $2 | — |
| ghorrock0xd9fe…db0d | No | 2 | 97.3¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.84 per $100 · 38,339+ bets · updating |
| hetacz0x6864…294b | Yes | 1,200 | 2.0¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.07 per $100 · 8,509 bets |
| JoyL0x0862…9a02 | Yes | 1,120 | 0.4¢ | $2 | — |
| LordYeah0xfd07…6bb7 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.1¢ | $2 | — |
| CaprioDiLeo0x2eb6…3e31 | Yes | 990 | 0.6¢ | $1 | — |
| Ruiziness0x306d…7a38 | Yes | 985 | 2.6¢ | $1 | — |
| Romeo0050x146d…17c7 | Yes | 977 | 0.8¢ | $1 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 886 | 0.3¢ | $1 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,278 bets |
| edgewarehouse0x7eeb…b6bd | Yes | 784 | 2.7¢ | $1 | — |
| Kaiji1230xe5bd…339a | Yes | 783 | 2.3¢ | $1 | — |
| lovhotmail0x9435…68e3 | No | 1 | 93.4¢ | $1 | — |
| ganstta0xb049…e8d6 | No | 1 | 95.0¢ | $1 | — |
| Ecnanif0x2a79…e2af | Yes | 700 | 3.7¢ | $1 | — |
| amy8880xc3cf…51d2 | Yes | 700 | 0.3¢ | $1 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | Yes | 676 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,988 bets |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | Yes | 617 | 3.8¢ | $1 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,746 bets |
| 0x544e…86dc | Yes | 600 | 0.4¢ | $1 | — |
| MollyParkets0xf021…df56 | Yes | 577 | 4.6¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x9901…5815 | Yes | 550 | 3.2¢ | $1 | — |
| norealtime0x56c2…6219 | Yes | 508 | 0.1¢ | $1 | Positive+$11.38 per $100 · 9,404 bets |
| polenk0x12e0…d6f8 | Yes | 500 | 0.7¢ | $1 | — |
| Brotherinchrist0x6be9…3493 | Yes | 500 | 1.6¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.92 per $100 · 2,940 bets |
| Mr-Lucker0xaee7…37fe | Yes | 500 | 0.8¢ | $1 | — |
| sjoerdvdmack0xe53d…146c | Yes | 489 | 3.2¢ | $1 | — |
| MailAJ-Long-Term0xda4d…c8ee | Yes | 473 | 0.6¢ | $1 | — |
| CashReviver0x9c6f…8b32 | Yes | 429 | 1.9¢ | $1 | — |
| 123mohan0x3758…5c70 | Yes | 373 | 9.9¢ | $1 | — |
| SaraDuterte0x23cc…4f5a | Yes | 333 | 0.3¢ | $0 | Break-even−$0.02 per $100 · 13,936 bets |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 322 | 2.6¢ | $0 | Losing−$2.59 per $100 · 123,775 bets |
| liq20x3423…fe57 | Yes | 315 | 0.2¢ | $0 | — |
| spacexstar0xb06c…b574 | Yes | 311 | 2.5¢ | $0 | Losing−$1.94 per $100 · 614 bets |
| dollarcat0xee60…9c89 | Yes | 278 | 3.8¢ | $0 | — |
| InfiniiteHorizon0x0431…1af9 | Yes | 260 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| CrysttalCasscade0x0d3d…1880 | Yes | 260 | 0.1¢ | $0 | — |
| a55330x758d…5d9e | Yes | 86 | 0.3¢ | $0 | Losing−$8.71 per $100 · 69,942+ bets · updating |
| rocky420060x85d5…bbf0 | Yes | 48 | 2.0¢ | $0 | — |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | Yes | 45 | 4.1¢ | $0 | — |
| northdrawer0xfd55…f905 | No | 0 | 99.8¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Elon Musk tweet volume · 90 overlapping windows · 9 events · $720K in play
Exactly one of this event's 11 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.