Market · 26 of 43 outcomes
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 20:21 UTC. Not financial advice.
Restated in plain words from the rules text. Each § opens the sentence it comes from; the rules text governs.
31 more outcomes in this event.
These 43 outcomes add up to 82.8¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.
US 2028 presidential race · 12 events · $64.3M in play
Exactly one of this event's 43 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| rdba0xc4d1…8ce8 | No | 3,372 | 98.7¢ | $3.37K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 302 bets |
| alohajp0xbeda…8bef | Yes | 1,017,443 | 0.1¢ | $1.53K | — |
| pizzabillgates0xa771…162d | Yes | 627,614 | 0.9¢ | $941 | New15 settled bets |
| risk-manager0xa61e…0abd | Yes | 430,666 | 0.2¢ | $646 | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,055 bets |
| nesetarbuziley0x49f2…3fd9 | No | 492 | 98.9¢ | $491 | — |
| Brokie0x1e1f…c855 | Yes | 304,000 | 0.4¢ | $456 | Proven+$2.06 per $100 · 1,048 bets |
3 accounts bet both sides equally · 219 shares each side · Show
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Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.