Market · 26 of 43 outcomes
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 22:56 UTC. Not financial advice.
US 2028 presidential race · 14 events · $63.7M in play
Exactly one of this event's 43 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
7 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| rdba0xc4d1…8ce8 | No | 3,372 | 98.7¢ | $3.37K | Positive+$1.71 per $100 · 302 bets |
| alohajp0xbeda…8bef | Yes | 1,017,453 | 0.1¢ | $1.53K | — |
| pizzabillgates0xa771…162d | Yes | 627,614 | 0.9¢ | $941 | New15 settled bets |
| risk-manager0xa61e…0abd | Yes | 430,574 | 0.2¢ | $646 | Positive+$1.54 per $100 · 1,055 bets |
| nesetarbuziley0x49f2…3fd9 | No | 492 | 98.9¢ | $491 | — |
| Brokie0x1e1f…c855 | Yes | 304,000 | 0.4¢ | $456 | Proven+$2.07 per $100 · 1,049 bets |
| RKR1270x31a4…1ee7 | No | 101 | 99.0¢ | $101 | Losing−$4.62 per $100 · 232 bets |
| jesus140x260b…9670 | No | 100 | 99.3¢ | $100 | — |
| melissamyers0xeb29…228f | No | 95 | 99.9¢ | $95 | — |
| chasecook0x4ab3…5fc2 | No | 92 | 99.3¢ | $92 | — |
| leedawn0xf813…ba72 | No | 92 | 99.3¢ | $92 | — |
| dianathompson0x29db…6b0d | No | 87 | 99.9¢ | $87 | — |
| hoffmanlaura0xde1c…c341 | No | 74 | 99.3¢ | $74 | — |
| donna070x7521…a60d | No | 72 | 99.9¢ | $72 | — |
| samanthamccoy0x974d…a8db | No | 67 | 99.9¢ | $67 | — |
| rtrfwer0x6afb…cc46 | No | 55 | 99.3¢ | $55 | — |
| rosschristian0x566c…46b4 | No | 55 | 99.9¢ | $55 | — |
| victorianavarro0x04a0…ed46 | No | 54 | 99.9¢ | $54 | — |
| thompsonchristy0xe42d…2f12 | No | 52 | 99.3¢ | $52 | — |
| highmeme0x1498…d5dc | No | 52 | 99.1¢ | $52 | New25 settled bets |
| polwally40xf28f…0327 | No | 51 | 98.9¢ | $50 | — |
| 0x2e88…24d1 | Yes | 30,500 | 0.2¢ | $46 | New17 settled bets |
| 0xbccc…bcb9 | No | 45 | 99.9¢ | $45 | — |
| briancurtis0x358b…4875 | No | 41 | 99.9¢ | $41 | — |
| manuelhodges0xe255…f461 | No | 39 | 99.9¢ | $39 | — |
| ganyan0xadc5…b728 | No | 36 | 99.4¢ | $36 | — |
| ETH10K0x32ce…27e0 | No | 35 | 99.1¢ | $35 | — |
| ruoxi0x8784…83b2 | No | 30 | 99.2¢ | $30 | — |
| otmen0x226b…ea11 | No | 30 | 99.7¢ | $30 | — |
| 9kk80x44f9…9738 | No | 28 | 98.6¢ | $28 | New13 settled bets |
| paitin0x79ac…6ece | No | 27 | 99.7¢ | $27 | — |
| francepa0x25eb…dc9d | No | 25 | 99.1¢ | $25 | New54 settled bets |
| 8972210x0dbb…2836 | No | 22 | 99.3¢ | $22 | — |
| Platan0x935e…a797 | No | 20 | 98.5¢ | $20 | — |
| dalajia0xbafb…80a0 | No | 20 | 98.9¢ | $20 | — |
| 0xb886…81b3 | Yes | 12,201 | 0.9¢ | $18 | Break-even+$0.69 per $100 · 1,518 bets |
| rdgf0xe728…f4a1 | No | 18 | 99.3¢ | $18 | — |
| bigbrainn0x8fc9…bf9d | No | 18 | 99.1¢ | $18 | — |
| LoganXu0x3f0b…9b8e | No | 16 | 98.7¢ | $16 | — |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 10,768 | 1.0¢ | $16 | Break-even−$0.88 per $100 · 131,166 bets |
| Wojtek0x07d4…8991 | Yes | 10,192 | 0.5¢ | $15 | Proven+$6.05 per $100 · 2,630 bets |
| 0xae87…d629 | Yes | 10,100 | 0.1¢ | $15 | — |
| TrampWu0xd270…b335 | No | 15 | 98.9¢ | $15 | — |
| NOlono0x2a54…db45 | No | 15 | 99.0¢ | $15 | — |
| jiang1jun0x5e2d…c58d | No | 15 | 99.1¢ | $15 | — |
| fgfgfgfg80x5a54…ea99 | No | 15 | 99.2¢ | $15 | — |
| jee60x54c3…2819 | No | 15 | 99.3¢ | $15 | — |
| ttopi0x6c63…0f5a | No | 15 | 99.3¢ | $15 | — |
| goodluck810x46ee…eb1e | Yes | 10,000 | 1.0¢ | $15 | Losing−$5.66 per $100 · 433 bets |
| gth50xe6c5…8771 | No | 15 | 99.3¢ | $15 | — |
| 0x23e5…4311 | No | 14 | 99.1¢ | $14 | — |
| 0xa52d…474a | No | 14 | 99.1¢ | $14 | — |
| 0x91bd…68b7 | No | 14 | 99.1¢ | $14 | — |
| 0x0e36…f8a4 | No | 14 | 99.1¢ | $14 | — |
| Donkov0xbc54…680f | Yes | 9,097 | 0.7¢ | $14 | Proven+$2.18 per $100 · 1,980 bets |
| 0x6696…2f4c | No | 14 | 99.1¢ | $14 | — |
| HerrieDavis0xac4a…bf1e | Yes | 8,900 | 0.8¢ | $13 | Proven+$3.54 per $100 · 13,307 bets |
| 0x82ae…bed2 | No | 13 | 99.1¢ | $13 | — |
| sirigy230x2cd0…fb3d | Yes | 8,000 | 1.0¢ | $12 | — |
| f2kus0xdcf8…93c6 | Yes | 7,777 | 0.9¢ | $12 | — |
| pregamee0xa88d…9830 | Yes | 7,143 | 0.7¢ | $11 | — |
| tugator0x0c26…d223 | Yes | 5,000 | 0.8¢ | $8 | Losing−$2.30 per $100 · 6,748 bets |
| 0xC03cE4d8Af842Ca6251Ac57228B3Ffb166ed50A0xa3a4…5106 | Yes | 3,000 | 0.8¢ | $5 | Positive+$121.33 per $100 · 627 bets |
| Elina-com0x9f62…506a | Yes | 3,000 | 0.7¢ | $5 | — |
| FreeCityIndividual0x098e…6fa2 | Yes | 2,889 | 0.3¢ | $4 | Proven+$13.29 per $100 · 5,150 bets |
| simplystupid1880x682c…17ae | Yes | 2,563 | 1.4¢ | $4 | Positive+$1.84 per $100 · 1,502 bets |
| 0x35cf…fa48 | Yes | 2,500 | 0.2¢ | $4 | — |
| Rex4160x9a3f…914a | Yes | 2,500 | 0.8¢ | $4 | Break-even+$0.19 per $100 · 6,909 bets |
| 0x4e25…d7a7 | Yes | 2,170 | 0.8¢ | $3 | Break-even−$0.16 per $100 · 10,029 bets |
| xlefgerx0x94e4…534a | Yes | 2,104 | 0.9¢ | $3 | Positive+$12.65 per $100 · 450 bets |
| avatar120x6ab8…ae32 | Yes | 2,000 | 1.0¢ | $3 | Losing−$1.37 per $100 · 265 bets |
| Bubba54f0x9c2a…5c8d | Yes | 2,000 | 50.0¢ | $3 | — |
| ACara0x7ab6…fa77 | Yes | 1,540 | 1.1¢ | $2 | Positive+$4.47 per $100 · 6,518 bets |
| dcndy10xec5e…33bd | Yes | 1,538 | 1.3¢ | $2 | — |
| cd11133aa55788b50x9998…e81b | Yes | 1,538 | 1.3¢ | $2 | — |
| Siziriv0x8e9e…38e4 | Yes | 1,500 | 0.4¢ | $2 | Positive+$7.10 per $100 · 6,762 bets |
| TheRedChip0xdf6d…9c5c | Yes | 1,299 | 0.8¢ | $2 | Proven+$5.80 per $100 · 1,305 bets |
| rocky420250x8929…733e | Yes | 1,250 | 0.7¢ | $2 | — |
| yastulblya0x34de…b2e8 | Yes | 1,200 | 1.1¢ | $2 | — |
| BigBoiBettin0x48ee…008c | Yes | 1,111 | 0.9¢ | $2 | Positive+$19.61 per $100 · 263 bets |
| rhinogiraffe0x7aed…df39 | Yes | 1,107 | 0.9¢ | $2 | Break-even+$0.11 per $100 · 4,780 bets |
| 0x5ee6…627b | Yes | 1,104 | 1.1¢ | $2 | — |
| zzzx20x26a9…f6b7 | Yes | 1,100 | 0.4¢ | $2 | Positive+$1.29 per $100 · 935 bets |
| 0x1735…8f18 | Yes | 1,074 | 0.5¢ | $2 | — |
| AnonymousUsername0x9703…69c2 | Yes | 1,060 | 0.8¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.35 per $100 · 16,353 bets |
| GollumGekko0x0845…6b6f | Yes | 1,042 | 0.4¢ | $2 | Proven+$2.16 per $100 · 4,060 bets |
| 0x05c2…2ac2 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.7¢ | $2 | — |
| taiberium0x3751…b844 | Yes | 1,000 | 1.0¢ | $2 | — |
| ChrisCash0xa007…2bd4 | Yes | 1,000 | 1.0¢ | $2 | — |
| Crocoflex0xcc38…5bb2 | Yes | 1,000 | 0.2¢ | $2 | — |
| Azamath0x2792…a919 | Yes | 909 | 1.1¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xa234…076e | Yes | 909 | 1.1¢ | $1 | — |
| omnibus-4247790x4247…91c4 | Yes | 885 | 0.2¢ | $1 | Losing−$12.51 per $100 · 6,039 bets |
| shudd0x6884…417c | Yes | 865 | 1.1¢ | $1 | Break-even−$0.86 per $100 · 357 bets |
| 0xrng0xf95c…092b | Yes | 857 | 0.7¢ | $1 | — |
| RobotAlpha0x5ce3…f779 | Yes | 856 | 0.8¢ | $1 | Positive+$1.39 per $100 · 753 bets |
| wokerjoesleeper0x63d4…a2f1 | Yes | 16 | 0.8¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.35 per $100 · 44,557 bets |
3 accounts bet both sides equally · 219 shares each side · Show
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Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.