Market · 5 of 9 outcomes
Will xAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 14:04 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PeterEriksson0xc7e7…40b4 | Yes | 2,327 | 0.9¢ | $10 | — |
| wavesinthesky0x07d1…8ffa | Yes | 1,363 | 1.5¢ | $6 | Losing−$5.32 per $100 · 4,481 bets |
| Brunomars0x6562…508e | No | 4 | 98.7¢ | $4 | — |
| 0x539b…c64f | No | 1 | 99.8¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.94 per $100 · 789 bets |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD.0xb41e…11fd | Yes | 274 | 1.5¢ | $1 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 260 | 7.7¢ | $1 | Losing−$2.60 per $100 · 123,566 bets |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.07M in play
Exactly one of this event's 9 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
These 9 outcomes add up to 101.7¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.