Market · 1 of 9 outcomes
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 08:14 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investnow0x97f3…0eba | Yes | 4,925 | 52.4¢ | $3.55K | — |
| big-short0x63c6…43a5 | Yes | 555 | 24.4¢ | $399 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Yes |
| 525 |
| 86.1¢ |
| $378 |
| Proven+$3.04 per $100 · 487 bets |
| luish0x0da4…edde | Yes | 479 | 73.2¢ | $345 | — |
| thursdays0x04dc…2387 | Yes | 421 | 65.1¢ | $303 | Positive+$1.41 per $100 · 3,275 bets |
| molodoyy0x564f…7026 | Yes | 350 | 52.4¢ | $252 | — |
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 99 events · $6.03M in play
Exactly one of this event's 9 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
These 9 outcomes add up to 105.8¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.