Market · 1 of 9 outcomes
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 09:37 UTC. Not financial advice.
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 100 events · $6.03M in play
Exactly one of this event's 9 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
1 proven trader is on Yes, 2 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investnow0x97f3…0eba | Yes | 4,925 | 52.4¢ | $3.52K | — |
| big-short0x63c6…43a5 | Yes | 555 | 24.4¢ | $397 | — |
| cat67670x124a…3741 | Yes | 525 | 86.1¢ | $375 | Proven+$3.04 per $100 · 487 bets |
| luish0x0da4…edde | Yes | 479 | 73.2¢ | $342 | — |
| thursdays0x04dc…2387 | Yes | 421 | 65.1¢ | $301 | Positive+$1.41 per $100 · 3,275 bets |
| molodoyy0x564f…7026 | Yes | 350 | 52.4¢ | $250 | — |
| parameter10xae91…0f69 | Yes | 289 | 21.6¢ | $207 | — |
| Djibooty0x9690…f2d5 | No | 659 | 39.9¢ | $188 | — |
| conherence0xfd59…0231 | Yes | 252 | 74.2¢ | $180 | — |
| 0x34a4…4cc7 | Yes | 235 | 57.0¢ | $168 | — |
| AJSV0xad53…ef24 | Yes | 181 | 64.0¢ | $130 | Losing−$2.66 per $100 · 123,344 bets |
| dudukos0x77c8…bc8c | Yes | 129 | 36.0¢ | $92 | Break-even+$0.91 per $100 · 2,492 bets |
| JustBot0xe33b…6de8 | Yes | 122 | 14.2¢ | $87 | — |
| libratus10x28b2…eb4f | Yes | 114 | 83.9¢ | $81 | — |
| jennylulu20160xa19f…ddc2 | Yes | 94 | 1.6¢ | $67 | — |
| 6927690xd7e0…c1bb | No | 225 | 41.5¢ | $64 | — |
| Nadmi0xe154…0b7f | No | 165 | 13.0¢ | $47 | Positive+$11.65 per $100 · 5,809 bets |
| alexhstv0x6b3b…cf11 | No | 153 | 19.9¢ | $44 | — |
| wavesinthesky0x07d1…8ffa | No | 149 | 28.3¢ | $43 | Losing−$5.32 per $100 · 4,481 bets |
| 0xc7d0…1f8a | No | 128 | 21.0¢ | $36 | Proven+$3.96 per $100 · 66,052 bets |
| 0xdoqwkp120x0c52…f01f | Yes | 44 | 15.0¢ | $31 | — |
| Blurry-Ball0x4734…60b1 | No | 105 | 28.7¢ | $30 | — |
| 0x3606…4e08 | Yes | 40 | 74.0¢ | $29 | Losing−$3.97 per $100 · 277 bets |
| warptrading0x6f08…54d3 | No | 96 | 52.0¢ | $27 | Losing−$1.09 per $100 · 10,198 bets |
| donthackme0x0380…073d | No | 82 | 21.6¢ | $24 | Positive+$3.80 per $100 · 101,311 bets |
| moroder0xc2f2…9c80 | Yes | 30 | 44.0¢ | $22 | — |
| 0x56a8…eea2 | Yes | 30 | 1.6¢ | $21 | — |
| senoritaawesome0x8fe6…a9e6 | Yes | 27 | 33.1¢ | $20 | — |
| 0x45e6…c078 | No | 60 | 25.0¢ | $17 | — |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 55 | 21.7¢ | $16 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,406 bets |
| TerranSupremacy0x4916…f56f | No | 50 | 41.2¢ | $14 | Positive+$4.59 per $100 · 8,855 bets |
| ngok9960xe1a9…339e | No | 50 | 28.8¢ | $14 | — |
| 0xe479…4924 | No | 50 | 61.2¢ | $14 | — |
| FortunateSuns0xdd5b…efbe | No | 40 | 47.0¢ | $11 | — |
| Elton1230x8673…4025 | Yes | 15 | 52.0¢ | $11 | — |
| V4grant0xf5bb…bdb8 | No | 36 | 28.8¢ | $10 | — |
| Rr550xb8ad…ff58 | Yes | 13 | 52.0¢ | $9 | — |
| paas20xa4bd…e8a2 | No | 30 | 80.0¢ | $9 | Break-even+$0.72 per $100 · 73,816+ bets · updating |
| 0x8df9…468c | No | 26 | 19.6¢ | $8 | — |
| agentcal0x42b7…abff | Yes | 10 | 52.0¢ | $7 | Break-even+$0.60 per $100 · 4,595 bets |
| S8880x0711…f03c | No | 25 | 53.6¢ | $7 | Proven+$9.13 per $100 · 9,031 bets |
| notalpha0xe1e0…fe32 | Yes | 9 | 60.0¢ | $7 | — |
| Elias.Thornwell0xa667…ceb3 | Yes | 9 | 35.4¢ | $6 | Break-even+$0.08 per $100 · 22,940 bets |
| PPMT0x510f…a43c | No | 22 | 30.0¢ | $6 | Break-even−$0.31 per $100 · 49,109+ bets · updating |
| 0x58e8…bb5a | No | 20 | 18.5¢ | $6 | Positive+$33.48 per $100 · 563 bets |
| sishui0x8a28…ebb5 | Yes | 6 | 78.7¢ | $5 | — |
| 0xa39f…fbdb | Yes | 5 | 14.0¢ | $4 | — |
| woeva0x22a7…8f74 | No | 12 | 16.5¢ | $3 | — |
| lakehatmood0x1de9…31b3 | No | 12 | 44.3¢ | $3 | — |
| sm-020x7a55…9e6b | No | 9 | 21.7¢ | $3 | — |
| 0x125c…7463 | No | 8 | 25.0¢ | $2 | — |
| parametric010x8ace…e6e8 | No | 8 | 65.0¢ | $2 | — |
| rated0xa3ad…6866 | Yes | 3 | 3.2¢ | $2 | Losing−$1.89 per $100 · 18,156 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | 3 | 55.0¢ | $2 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,685 bets |
| Bsau40x8b44…63fb | Yes | 3 | 42.0¢ | $2 | — |
| zorlix200xf00e…920b | Yes | 3 | 39.0¢ | $2 | — |
| LilIslandB0x2cd2…ec32 | Yes | 2 | 44.0¢ | $2 | — |
| 0heartu0x1850…ab37 | Yes | 2 | 50.0¢ | $1 | — |
| JoE0x7740…cbcd | No | 4 | 56.0¢ | $1 | Break-even+$0.20 per $100 · 11,334 bets |
| smileudance0xaa73…c2c4 | No | 4 | 28.8¢ | $1 | — |
| iufjfhefi780x0ea1…c714 | No | 4 | 28.8¢ | $1 | — |
| 13klklas0x52b3…3a58 | No | 3 | 71.0¢ | $1 | — |
| 0xb2ea…81a1 | Yes | 1 | 86.5¢ | $1 | — |
| 14gjhgjk0x3f1f…feae | Yes | 1 | 57.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$1.53 per $100 · 8,319 bets |
| Lavincey0x1cdd…e595 | No | 2 | 26.0¢ | $1 | Losing−$7.89 per $100 · 44,077+ bets · updating |
| meow-1230x0739…aba8 | Yes | 1 | 67.3¢ | $1 | — |
| 0x926d…a15b | Yes | 1 | 60.4¢ | $1 | — |
| no1biao0xdf08…cf97 | No | 1 | 67.0¢ | $0 | — |
| e46m30x4f1d…8de2 | Yes | 0 | 3.1¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.61 per $100 · 87,306 bets |
| 0x7101…884b | Yes | 0 | 42.0¢ | $0 | — |
| IrthBirth0xc092…5428 | Yes | 0 | 35.0¢ | $0 | — |
| LetTheGoodTimesRoll0x1408…b4f8 | No | 1 | 45.1¢ | $0 | — |
| balthazar0x5a21…9318 | No | 0 | 21.7¢ | $0 | Positive+$8.64 per $100 · 127,633 bets |
| mustbethewater0xc518…2594 | No | 0 | 44.6¢ | $0 | — |
| 0x0607…e0e3 | Yes | 0 | 82.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 56sdfdsfs0x610e…b852 | No | 0 | 20.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xdad6…0d14 | Yes | 0 | 36.0¢ | $0 | — |
| rocky420180xeda0…7dff | Yes | 0 | 31.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 1239874560x0130…fb49 | No | 0 | 51.6¢ | $0 | Positive+$2.92 per $100 · 12,469 bets |
| godblessme20260x7dcf…a7bd | No | 0 | 26.7¢ | $0 | — |
| Colala0x9cb3…1367 | Yes | 0 | 67.0¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.92 per $100 · 31,628 bets |
| pd.unique0x27ab…e521 | No | 0 | 45.2¢ | $0 | Break-even+$0.06 per $100 · 30,847 bets |
| prognozu0x8199…bb6d | Yes | 0 | 26.0¢ | $0 | — |
| gft423opmygiaigiax0x4a1f…71c5 | No | 0 | 44.0¢ | $0 | — |
| 0xf2eb…6eb5 | No | 0 | 79.0¢ | $0 | — |
| dsoisoij0x2099…3024 | Yes | 0 | 14.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$3.03 per $100 · 7,043 bets |
| Lucerys0x1387…55f8 | No | 0 | 31.0¢ | $0 | Positive+$5.68 per $100 · 56,784 bets |
| newbeeeee0x0476…50b3 | No | 0 | 25.8¢ | $0 | — |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.