Loading this topic
Topic · Tech
389 markets that all win or lose on the same real-world result.
Money in play
1.5% of Polymarket
Events · markets
88 · 389
that win or lose together
Proven traders lean
1 of the 10 biggest bettors
Biggest event ends
Jan 5
in 86 days
| Event | Leading outcome | Chance | This week | Money in play |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31? | ↑$1.5T | 92.5¢ | down 1 point this week | $1.83M |
| Anthropic announces bankruptcy by...? |
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 11, 2026, 16:53 UTC. Chances are the market's view, not ours. Not financial advice.
| December 31, 2029 |
| 21.5¢ |
| – |
| $0.96M |
| Anthropic IPO by __? | December 31, 2026 | 76.5¢ | down 7 points this week | $0.72M |
| Largest IPO by market cap in 2026? | Anthropic | 53.8¢ | down 2.1 points this week | $0.62M |
| Which company has best AI model end of 2026? | 42.5¢ | up 4 points this week | $0.21M |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? | Anthropic | 95.8¢ | down 0.7 points this week | $0.10M |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...? | December 31 | 95.9¢ | down 2.7 points this week | $0.10M |
| Which company has the best AI model end of October? | Anthropic | 30.5¢ | down 1 point this week | $97.8K |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap | $2.0–$2.25T | 29.8¢ | up 3.3 points this week | $84.9K |
| Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets) | 1.8T+ | 82.5¢ | down 3 points this week | $61.9K |
Yes minus No · across the 7 main markets
| Trader | Their view | Money on it | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| TheReturnOfDarthMaul0x3a8a…7699 | No on ↑$4.0T · Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31 | $368.6K | Proven+$9.79 per $100 · 1,188 bets |
| luck000040xc6e9…0741 | No on ↑$4.0T · Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31 | $259.3K | New78 bets |
| jk18880x5e55…8ffd | No on December 31, 2027 | $170.1K | Break-even−$0.73 per $100 · 274 bets |
| occasionalAwareness0x8a4c…532b | No on December 31, 2027 | $165.9K | Proven+$3.04 per $100 · 2,447 bets |
| oieshfn3450x6550…8451 | ↑$1.75T · Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31 | $95.0K | Break-even+$0.65 per $100 · 2,784 bets |
| feeder-of-markets0x9c9f…e2d2 | No on December 31, 2027 | $90.5K | New39 bets |
| dromedaryy0x6575…b198 | December 31, 2027 | $75.1K | New85 bets |
| uma0030x53c4…740b | No on ↑$1.75T · Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31 | $70.6K | New77 bets |
| UnreasonableAwareness0x9afd…574b | ↑$3.0T · Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31 | $66.8K | – |
| anoin1230x9648…6825 | No on October 31, 2026 | $57.9K | Losing−$7.35 per $100 · 1,378 bets |
From the 20 biggest holders of each main market. Traders with money on both sides count only the difference.