Market · 3 of 9 outcomes
Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
Live Polymarket data as of Oct 12, 2026, 11:08 UTC. Not financial advice.
None of the biggest holders bet both sides equally, so every account below is taking a side.
3 proven traders are on Yes, 0 on No. Proven = 100+ settled bets, makes $2+ per $100 bet, and beats the odds when holding to the end.
| Trader | Side | Shares | Bought at | Worth now | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| wavesinthesky0x07d1…8ffa | Yes | 1,520 | 7.3¢ | $157 | Losing−$5.32 per $100 · 4,481 bets |
| cat67670x124a…3741 | Yes | 1,387 | 9.9¢ | $143 | Proven |
Shares = Yes minus No for each trader. Record counts every settled bet, including losses never cashed in. Polymarket's own contracts are left out.
| Mikele0x2552…73d2 | Yes | 746 | 8.0¢ | $77 | — |
| flow-trader-at-optiver0x1584…71b6 | No | 82 | 53.0¢ | $73 | Break-even+$0.16 per $100 · 6,776 bets |
| cigarettes0xd218…b5c9 | No | 75 | 90.3¢ | $67 | Break-even−$0.15 per $100 · 193,412 bets |
| Haradwaith0x21ff…0d71 | No | 69 | 98.9¢ | $62 | Break-even−$0.89 per $100 · 130,736 bets |
Anthropic valuation & IPO · 101 events · $6.04M in play
Exactly one of this event's 9 outcomes pays $1. Their prices add up to right now.
These 9 outcomes add up to 105.4¢. Only one can win, so a fair set adds up to about 100¢.